In that regard, BP has just released its Annual Energy Outlook 2030, examining how the world energy supply, and mix, will change in the years up to 2030. The booklet is an update from the study released last year, and reviewed at the time. This year the introductory speech by Bob Dudley focused on energy demand in China and India, Middle East exports, and transport fuel demand. BP sees overall energy demand growing some 40% over the next two decades, with virtually all growth coming from the developing countries. More than half will come from China and India alone. And of that energy, they anticipate that the supply will break out as follows:

Energy Supply Source Contributions ( BP Energy Outlook 2030)

Demand will grow across virtually all sections, apart from that of transportation in the OECD, which is expected to fall over the next two decades.

Demand changes in the next two decades (BP Energy Outlook 2030)

Oil will still be the basic source for transportation fuel, and though growth in demand is anticipated to be only 1% a year that turns into another 16 million barrels a day by 2030. One has to be careful therefore in assessing the contributions of the different sources of fuel, as percentages, since, while these may be falling relative to the whole, the actual volumes that are being consumed may still be rising.

Expected changes in the relative sources of energy supply prediction from last year (left) to this (right)through 2030 (BP Energy Outlook 2030)

On a minor note, the role of coalsurpasses that of oil some 20-years from now, while last year, the two were about equivalent. Even though BP expects that by 2020, coal’s share of the global market will begin to fall, though less steeply now than they anticipated last year. And BP expects that some of the change in the mix will be brought about by technical change.

Technology underlies many of the trends apparent in this report. For example, the supply of gas has been accelerated as a result of technologies that unlock shale gas and tight gas. In the transport sector, we believe the efficiency of the internal combustion engine is likely to double over the next 20 years. And that will save roughly a Saudi Arabia’s worth of production. By 2030, we expect hybrids to account for most car sales and roughly 30% of all vehicles on the road.

The interesting question is, of course, where BP thinks that all the oil will come from. Last year, when they projected the same growth rate, the sources were expected to be Saudi Arabia and Iraq. This year, they project that more will come from Deep water, rising from the 9% of supply anticipated last year to 10% in the current review (currently it is at about 7%). But, more interesting, is that they see the roles of energy efficiency and technical exploitation of indigenous resources leading to a great change in the international fuel market:

we foresee both the Americas and Eurasia – or Europe including Russia and the former Soviet Union – achieving self-sufficiency in energy, while the Middle East will generate surplus supply for Asia’s surplus demand. In the US for example, oil imports have dropped by about one-third since peaking in 2005 and are likely to be half of today’s level in 2030. The US now produces over 50% of the liquid fuel it uses – as opposed to importing the majority, as was the case a few years ago.

For the U.S. and European pictures to change as much as they anticipate, cellulosic ethanol still appears to be the flag pole on which they have hung their future, and in which they remain heavily invested. Yet when one looks at the make-up of the sources for fuels in 2030, as projected this year over that suggested last year, there has been a slight gain in overall volumes required.

Anticipated sources of fuel in 2030 – last year’s projection (left) and this year (right)

The interesting changes come in Non-OPEC growth, with the contribution from bio-fuels diminishing, growth in US production replacing that anticipated from the FSU (wonder where that went?) and a drop in the Non-OPEC declines. To answer my own question, I suspect that the growth in FSU supplies (which I am covering elsewhere) has been melded into the need to sustain production at current levels, and that may be a part of the reason for the drop in the Non-OPEC declines.

When one considers that BP are forecasting an increase in demand of 8 mbd from China, 3.5 mbd from India, and 4 mbd from the Middle East, with the non-OPEC decline being at 6 mbd, there is a total of 21.5 mbd of new production being forecast, over the next 20 years. And of this, 12 mbd will come from OPEC, namely Saudi Arabia and Iraq, but with a significant contribution – 4 mbd – from NGLs.

At which point I cough gently and draw your attention to recent remarks (h/t Stuart Staniford) of the Saudi Oil Minister, who suggested that they have flexibility up to a full production of 12.5 mbd, with a little time; but, on the other hand, they will drop production to keep the price over $100 a barrel. And so there is a suspicion that as Libyan oil production returns to normal, Saudi production may fall in balance. The upper limit on Saudi production had earlier been set at 12 mbd, but both these figures are now coming under increasing question, particularly since Aramco has had problems in finding a market for their heavier crudes, which make up almost all of the surplus over current production. (And the Saudi refineries to treat them are still a couple of years away). Yet, if the refineries to treat those oils do come on line, and that increases Saudi capability by 1 mbd of marketable product from Manifa, it will still only bring them up to about 11 mbd. It may be that they will raise production that much, to offset increasing domestic use, and maintain the volume of exports that they need to sustain their economy. But how long they can do that, relying on their ageing major reservoirs remains, of course, the other big question. BP anticipates that they will increase production by 3 mbd over current levels, and still have a cushion of a million or so barrels a day.

And as for Iraq, the country exported 2.14 mbd in December having risen 275 kbd or 14.4% over the year. Whether that can be sustained in the face of continued troubles is not clear. The Al-Ahdab field has come on stream and is ahead of schedule, at 120 kbd, though it may well be that all that oil ends up in China. BP, however, are assuming that Iraq can double production, to 6 mbd, by 2030.

Growth in production in the Americas is anticipated to come from the oil sands (up 2.2 mbd); the Brazilian deep waters ( another 2 mbd) and U.S. shale oil (at 2.2 mbd). Total biofuels growth of 3.5 mbd balances out the anticipated supply and demand at just under 105 mbd.

The continued growth in natural gas is divided into two parts, that which is shipped through pipelines, and that sent as LNG in tankers. Total demand will rise about 50% with the Middle East, China and India providing most of the increase in demand, and with supply coming from a number of sources.

Changes in natural gas demand and supply over the next 20 years (
BP Energy Outlook 2030)

The growth in use will be across all sectors of the economy, but if I do an eyeball comparison it seems as though there is a significant drop in LNG increase over the numbers that BP were using last year. Back then they were seeing an increase of around 70 bcf/day over the interval; now, while they are projecting a growth of 4.5% p.a., the overall volume is somewhat less.

Coal demand will continue to rise, largely due to increased demand for power and industrial use in China and India, while western nations slowly ease away from the fuel.

Changes in coal use over the next 20 years. (BP Energy Outlook 2030)

BP summarizes the changes that they have made, relative to last year’s forecast as:

Changes in BP forecasts from 2011 to 2012. (BP Energy Outlook 2030)

Overall, it looks to be a rather optimistic view of the future.

Who hasn’t enjoyed heat from the sun? Doing so represents a direct energetic transfer—via radiation—from the sun’s hot surface to your skin. One square meter can catch about 1000 W, which is comparable to the output of a portable space heater. A dark surface can capture the energy at nearly 100% efficiency, beating (heating?) the pants off of solar photovoltaic (PV) capture efficiency, for instance. We have already seen that solar PV qualifies as a super-abundant resource, requiring panels covering only about 0.5% of land to meet our entire energy demand (still huge, granted). So direct thermal energy from the sun, gathered more efficiently than what PV can do, is automatically in the abundant club. Let’s evaluate some of the practical issues surrounding solar thermal: either for home heating or for the production of electricity.

Heat as Something Useful

In physics classes, I often catch myself repeating the mantra that heat is a disordered, useless state of energy that is generically the endpoint of an energy flow process. For example, the energy allocated to the fast-spinning wheel of an upside-down bicycle will slowly drain away as the wheel stirs the air, makes sound, and suffers friction at the bearing. Every one of these energy paths results in heat, until 100% of the invested energy is dissipated and the room is a tad warmer as a result. We will never reassemble the lost energy into useful form, once entropy has claimed it. All of this is true enough, but I feel very awkward uttering the words that heat is the graveyard of energy flow, and must place an asterisk on the statement.

The asterisk is that the overwhelming majority of our societal energy consumption makes use of heat—over 90% in the U.S.! So heat does not deserve the bad rap as a worthless waste product. Rather, heat runs our world! Sometimes we just want the heat directly, via: natural gas for furnaces, hot water, and cooking; heating oil for the home; and gas and coal for industrial process heat. This accounts for 20% of our total energy demand, leaving about two-thirds of our total energy consumption in the form of heat that powers heat engines for electricity production, transportation, and machinery. In short, all the energy we get from fossil fuels, nuclear, and biomass derives from heat. That’s hardly useless!

Radiant Heat

The Sun transmits its energy to Earth across the emptiness of space via radiation. Each square meter of surface at a temperature, T, emits radiation at a rate of σT⁴, where T is expressed in Kelvin (important!) and σ = 5.67×10⁻⁸ W/m²/K⁴. This constant is easy to remember via the sequence 5-6-7-8. Ignoring for now the subtleties of greenhouse gases, the surface of Earth—typically at 288 K—emits 390 W/m². The Sun, on the other hand, at 5800 K, emits 64 MW per square meter!

Summing over the area of the spherical Sun, at 109 times the radius of Earth, we find the total radiant power of the Sun to be a whopping 3.9×10²⁶ W. Now that’s a light bulb! The Sun’s radiant energy spreads into all directions, creating a sphere of light. At the distance of the Earth, that sphere has an area of 4πr² ≈ 2.8×10²³ m², where r is the mean Earth-Sun distance. Dividing these huge figures, we find that the radiant intensity at Earth is 1370 W/m²—which I hope will be a familiar number by now for Do the Math readers.

We can also turn the σT⁴ relation on its head and say that a patch of full sun (at the ground) receiving 1000 W/m² corresponds to a radiant temperature of 364 K, or a blistering 91°C. This means that a black panel in full sun could get this hot if no paths other than radiation were available for cooling the panel. We would then say that the panel is in radiative equilibrium with the Sun. But air can carry away heat by convection. The self-convection of a hot, flat plate will be about 10 W/m² per degree of difference between the panel and the surrounding air. Requiring the sum of radiative and convective losses to add up to the input power of 1000 W/m² yields a solution of about 55°C (328 K; 131°F) if the surrounding air is at 20°C. This assumes that the plate has no heat paths available through the (insulated) back side. If, on the other hand, it is a thin panel allowing convection on both sides, it will be cooler—although the “heat rises” phenomenon will suppress heat flow on the back side relative to the front, if the plate is indeed level. Just for fun, if we get an additional 5 W/m²/K of convective loss off the back, the equilibrium temperature drops to 47°C (117°F). It all seems reasonable.

Passive Solar: Putting Heat to Use

The simplest way to replace fossil fuel energy with solar energy is called a window. A single uncoated piece of glass will transmit 92% of visible light (the rest reflected) when light comes straight in (down to 75% at a 20° grazing incidence, 60% at 10° grazing). The glass is opaque to ultraviolet light and mid- to far-infrared (IR) light, but lets over 95% of the unreflected incident solar spectrum pass.

Considering that windows in houses/buildings tend to be vertical, we can evaluate the energy input through windows, taking transmission loss, reflection loss, and angular foreshortening into effect. Because the Sun is higher in the sky in the summer, the window appears foreshortened to the direct sunlight, and also reflects more. So a south-facing window automatically admits more heat in the winter than in the summer, with no adjustment. Putting an overhang over the window—ideally with some vertical space between the window and overhang—can eliminate the summer noon-time contribution entirely. The figure below illustrates the fraction of incident direct-sun energy (think 1000 W/m²) admitted by the window. Vertical reference lines indicate the noon-time elevation of the sun at a latitude of 40° for the winter and summer solstices. The noon-day sun will be somewhere between these values all year. Adjustment to other latitudes involves a simple shift of the dashed lines by the latitude difference.

Fraction of incident direct energy (perpendicular to rays) making it through a vertical window. The overhang extends an amount that is half the window height, and optionally is spaced 0.2 window-height-units above the top of the window.

So it is not a stretch to admit energy in excess of 500 W/m² into your home in winter sun. You can stack up the equivalent of a dozen or so space heaters pretty quickly.

Drab Winter?

Sounds great, but winters are not always the sunniest of times. However, it’s not as bad as you might fear. Every photon of visible light that makes it through your window—even if coming from a drab gray cloud—deposits the same amount of heat no mater how convoluted its path from the Sun. Indeed, a measurement campaign in my home has revealed that the attic gets surprisingly warmer (10°C, or 18°F) than the ambient air even on a day of heavy clouds when my solar PV system only caught one-quarter of the usual amount of light. So we can use the NREL database for a flat plate collector (in this case, a window) oriented south at a 90° tilt to represent the amount of energy a window would grab. The following table indicates the equivalent number of full-sun hours per day during the heating months for Seattle, WA (on the poor end), St. Louis MO (a representative U.S. average solar city), and San Diego (my home).

The table also includes the number of equivalent full-sun hours per day a 2-axis concentrating system would recover, which is a good proxy for the average daily number of hours of direct sun. The window can often get more energy than is present in full sun due to the diffuse gain, which is the case for six out of the seven months for Seattle in the table above.

If a house had four large windows facing south, each 2 m wide and 3 m tall, a typical Seattle day in December would deposit 900 W/m² (from earlier graph, low elevation sun) times 24 m², or about 22 kW of power for about 1.3 hours. This amounts to 28 kWh of energy (corresponding to about 1 Therm of natural gas energy).

To make this amount of heat work, the house must be extraordinarily well insulated, use fancy windows, and be draft-free—using a heat recovery ventilator. But such feats can be accomplished in passive home design, even in climates that would appear to be completely hostile to the notion of passive solar heating.

It is also often advantageous to have several days’ worth of thermal storage in the home to average out the sunny and cloudy days. A dark, massive rock or brick wall can do the job—preferentially opposite the huge south-facing windows to directly soak up the solar input. At a specific heat capacity of 1000 J/kg/K and a density of 3000 kg/m³, a rock wall 0.5 m thick and matching our 24 m² window footprint will see a temperature rise of about 2°C for every hour of sunlight poring onto it. A good sunny day pumping five hours of solar energy into the mass would raise its temperature 10°C, so that lazy air pulling off heat at 2 W/m²/K would initially pump out 2400 W of power after the sun is down (assuming the back of the wall is insulated), and provide about 2 days of heat with no additional input.

Of course a number of engineering challenges surround clever passive solar thermal design, and I should pull away before the post gets bogged down (too late, you say?). Perhaps I will return to the topic later. For now, it is worth understanding that the amount of solar radiation incident on a house can be sufficient to provide heating even in unfavorable climates. I should add one caveat: that passive heating may be sufficient 90% of the time, requiring either backup heat or—preferably—flexibility in dealing with a colder house the other 10% of the time.

Hot Water

Using the sun to heat water is a very similar concept. We saw that a flat black plate in the sun can get pretty toasty. In practice, flat panel collectors can hang onto about 60% of the incident solar energy, transferring this to the water. Heat paths via radiation through the glass on the front, convection of air within the panel, and conduction through the back and mounting frame all contribute to loss. For radiative loss, radiation from the black panel is intercepted by the glass (thermal IR is not transmitted by glass), warming it up. This can then radiate both skyward and back to the absorber. A second piece of glass (double-pane) can cut down radiation losses, by returning approximately half of what would otherwise have been lost off the front panel. Some fancy units evacuate air to minimize convective loss, and the backs can be insulated to reduce loss. Given all these thermal leaks, holding on to 60% of the incident energy is pretty impressive.

Example construction of simple flat-panel collector.

Let’s assume your household requires 300 liters of hot water each day—the equivalent of four “long” 10 minute showers at a healthy flow of 8 liters per minute. This, by the way, is far more than I believe is really necessary for a household—even if it is typical. If the water comes in at 10°C, and is heated to 60°C, then we need to supply 15,000 kcal of energy—following the definition of the kilocalorie. Considering 60% efficiency and allowing for some daily loss in storage, we need to provide 30,000 kcal of solar input each day, amounting to 35 kWh of energy. As it turns out, tilting a panel to 54° in St. Louis gives at least 3.5 hours of full-sun-equivalent (1000 W/m²) even in December, so that we need 10 m² of panels (a bedroom’s size).

Two panels on roof provide hot water.

Solar Thermal Electricity

The relatively low temperatures achieved by flat panels in the sun do not encourage exploitation in the form of heat engines for making electricity. But we can fix this through the simple act of concentration. No—not simply thinking really hard about it. Much like a magnifying glass can be used to burn paper, any piling-up of solar flux can elevate the temperature. I have personally melted pennies, boiled water, and turned sand into glass with a large hand-held Fresnel lens. Even a bunch of flat mirrors directing sunlight onto a common spot can create formidably high temperatures.

Concentration is expressed as a ratio, so if I take a circular magnifying glass 100 mm in diameter that makes an image of the sun 1 mm across, the concentration factor is 10,000 (the ratio of areas). Using our radiative relation, the resulting 10 MW/m² corresponds to a temperature of 3600 K! That kind of temperature will melt any metal, if you put the concentrated light onto a fleck of metal smaller than the bright spot. Typical boilers in power plants produce a hot temperature of about 1000 K. Achieving a comparable temperature via solar input requires a concentration in excess of 60.

One downside is that concentration implies tracking, which adds to complexity. Two-dimensional concentration—like a magnifying glass—requires two-axis control to keep the hotspot on the small target. One-dimensional concentration—such as a parabolic trough—only requires tracking along one axis. The concentration ratio of a 1-D concentrator is roughly the square-root of the 2-D variety, but that’s okay if we only need concentration ratios around 100 or so. One-dimensional concentration is also far more forgiving of imperfections in the reflector shape (can be made more cheaply).

Another downside of concentration is that it requires real direct sunlight to work. Can you see a sharp shadow on the ground? If not, concentration is effectively dead. In essence, the concentrator is forming an image of the sun—sometimes a stretched-out linear image in the case of trough collectors. Forming images of clouds onto the collector will not get it very excited. It needs the real thing. Comparing the effective yield for tracking configurations at different sites gives some sense for how some places are differently advantaged to exploit solar thermal. In general, desert areas do very well.

The table above gives average daily yields (kWh/m²/day, or equivalent hours at 1000 W/m²) for three types of solar collection in four locations, each entry giving worst-month/yearly-average/best-month values. The first is for a flat plate tilted to the site latitude (appropriate for PV or hot water), followed by 1-axis concentration tilting along a N-S axis, and finally a 2-axis concentration configuration. Solar thermal makes the most sense in areas where more energy will be collected than with PV panels—but this is not a rigorous criterion, since solar thermal offers some advantages over PV, as we’ll discuss in a bit. In the table above, only Dagget, California—in the Mojave desert— has concentration beating flat-panel PV for total energy. Other desert cities in the Southwestern U.S. likewise are favorable toward solar thermal electricity. But it’s definitely a location-dependent technology.

Solar Thermal Schemes

Schemes abound: 1) power towers where an array of individually-steered flat mirrors are angled to put sunlight at the top of a tower in the middle of the array; 2) satellite-dish-looking segmented bowls with a heat engine at the focus; 3) parabolic trough arrays with a hot-oil-carrying pipe running down the focus; 4) and others topologies, I am sure.

Solar "power tower" outside Barstow, CA.

Taking the simple parabolic trough as an example, about 70% of the incident energy makes it into the 400°C fluid running within the central pipe. Heat carried by the oil makes steam to turn turbines, in the traditional power plant sense. The efficiency of the power plant portion is in the usual ballpark of 30%. These two factors alone produce 20% efficiency, but other losses tend to push it down to 15% or so. The troughs are typically oriented north-south, with daily tracking (e.g., pivot about the hot pipe). Self-shadowing becomes an issue, mitigated by providing ample room between collectors. If you want to track the sun as low as 15 degrees elevation with no shadowing, for instance, only one-fourth of the land area is utilized. East-west orientations are also possible, performing less well year-round, but more uniformly throughout the year.

Parabolic trough collectors.

Parabolic troughs are pretty neat, I think, for a variety of reasons. First, the parabolic shape accomplishes focus independent of the slant angle of the light in the direction along the axis: mathematical perfection no matter the angle. This leads to the second serious advantage—already discussed—of single-axis tracking along a north-south axis. The ability to transport the heat along the axis using a fluid/pipe is unique to this design, making it convenient to schlep the heat around where you want it. Finally, because the shiny material only needs to be bent in one direction (far easier than a bowl-shape), the reflectors are relatively inexpensive to make.

Evaluating a realized example, the Nevada Solar One plant has a 64 MW nominal capacity, generating 134 million kilowatt-hours of energy per year. Dividing these two implies about 2100 hours of full-power operation per year, for a duty cycle of 24%, or 5.7 hours per day. The NREL database for Las Vegas expects a north-south single-axis tracker to get an average of 6.2 hours per day horizon-to-horizon. So not too far off. The plant cost $266 million to build, amounting to $4.15 per Watt. Pretty similar to installed solar PV. The plant occupies about 1.6 km² of land, computing to 40 W/m² at nominal full power. This is 4% of the incident 1000 W/m² (at the height of summer), which is pretty close to what we would guess for a 15% efficient collector occupying 25% of the land area. I love it when the numbers make sense!

A Storage Boon

One serious perk to solar thermal—not yet exploited as fully as it might be—is thermal storage. Make hay when the sun shines, and squirrel it away for overnight use. All solar thermal plants have short-term immunity from intermittency due simply to the thermal mass in the system. Solar thermal plants are designed with varying degrees of storage, many just aiming for several hours to better follow the peak demand curve into the evening. But as renewables gain dominance over fossil fuels (as I’m hoping they do), storage will become increasingly important. To my mind, the ratio of storage to collection is pretty straightforward to change (i.e., bigger vat of hot fluid), so that in principle solar thermal plants could achieve days of storage with little added complexity. We can’t say this about PV or wind. And storage efficiency for a large container grows linearly with the tank’s dimension, since it the energy contained scales like volume, while thermal loss paths tend to scale with area.

One of the Winners

We looked at three categories of using heat from the Sun: passive home heating, hot water, and solar thermal electricity. Virtually anything involving direct use of solar energy—as opposed to hydroelectric, wind, waves, etc. as secondary and tertiary derivatives of solar input—is bound to end up on the abundant side of the story. And so it is with these three, although perhaps given that the first two are confined to the meager area represented by rooftops and/or windows—rather than the entire land area—they should more fairly be stashed in the “potent” box.

Solar thermal electricity definitely joins the camp as an abundant resource. Some of the other abundant resources described to date (nuclear breeders, geothermal depletion, and more to come) present technical hurdles or other practical barriers that diminish my excitement for them. I won’t claim that solar thermal electricity has no difficulties (reflectors get dusty/abraded by desert sands, for instance). But it’s pretty low-tech, utilizes over a century of experience in running heat engines, allows storage to be an integral part of the design, and is super-abundant on the scale of things. All the same, we have found yet another viable way to make electricity, doing little to directly address a liquid fuels shortage.

The low-tech nature of solar thermal makes it especially robust in tough times. I can imagine personally designing and building a passive solar home, flat-plate thermal collectors for hot water, and even a parabolic trough to create steam. I can’t say the same about a PV panel, a nuclear reactor, or geothermal wells kilometers deep. It gets my vote.

We’ll see nuclear fusion next week. Sound familiar?

Thomas Homer-Dixon: Our peak oil premium

Peak oil – it’s history, right?

Everything has changed so fast.

Two years ago, the world was facing an intractable oil crisis. “By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear,” the U.S. Defence Department declared in a major report. “A severe energy crunch is inevitable without a massive expansion of production and refining capacity.”

But now we’re told that the world is awash in oil. Deepwater production from the Gulf of Mexico and offshore Brazil is soaring. New “elephant” fields have been discovered off Ghana and possibly Angola. Meanwhile, hydrofracking technology is liberating hundreds of thousands of barrels a day from “tight” shale oil formations in North Dakota and Texas, with more coming on line from Colorado, Wyoming and even Ohio.

Oil inches above $99 on China data, US supply jump

Oil prices inched above $99 a barrel Wednesday as investors weighed encouraging economic data from China against a jump in U.S. crude inventories and signs of sluggish growth.

The Peak Oil Crisis: On Closing Our Refineries

Here is one more thing for those of us who live in the northeastern U.S. to start worrying about – the refineries that make our gasoline, diesel, heating oil, etc. are dropping like flies.

In today’s economy, these refineries are simply losing so much money that their owners who are not major oil companies that make billions from oil production are having put them up for sale or close them down. In recent years we lost refineries in Westville, NJ, and Yorktown, Va. A large refinery in southeastern Pennsylvania was shut down in December as was one in New Jersey. A third large Philadelphia refinery is up for sale and will be closed in July if no buyer can be found.

The politics of peak oil

It’s a bit hard to believe that in 2012 anyone is still unclear about what “peak oil” means, but enough confusion about it has surfaced in the past week that I feel compelled to, once again, try to set the record straight.

Al-Naimi: Investing for the Future in Turbulent Times [PDF]

I would like to begin, though, by correcting a particular misunderstanding, or misperception, about Saudi Arabia – specifically about its domestic oil consumption and the impact this may or may not have on its position as the world’s leading crude oil supplier.

U.S. Refiners, Oil Workers Avert Strike With Tentative Three-Year Contract

The United Steelworkers union and Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) averted a potential strike that would have idled as many as 69 refineries by tentatively agreeing to a new three-year contract.

The proposal includes pay increases of 2.5 percent in the first year and 3 percent in the second and third years, along with some of the improvements in safety language sought by the union, according to three labor representatives with direct knowledge of the negotiations.

Scottish independence: Minister says referendum brings oil uncertainty

The UK energy minister has described the independence referendum as “a point of uncertainty that could cause concern” to oil and gas firms.

Russia, Ukraine Consider EU Role in Gas Talks

Ukraine and Russia are considering inviting the European Commission to take part in bilateral gas talks, Ukraine’s energy minister Yury Boyko said on Wednesday.

“Russia shows understanding on the issue. Constructive talks to invite European partners are underway,” the minister said.

Gazprom can’t meet all requests for gas-source

(Reuters) – Gazprom is getting more requests for gas deliveries to Europe than it can physically accommodate, a source at the Russian gas export monopoly said on Wednesday, adding that demand had been at elevated levels for more than a week.

Russia cuts EU gas, blames cold weather

BRUSSELS – Gazprom has begun cutting gas supplies to the EU in order to meet higher demand in Russia caused by severe cold weather.

Gazprom Sees 2011 Net Profit Up 25% On-Year At $40 Billion

MOSCOW – Russian gas giant OAO Gazprom (GAZP.RS) said Wednesday it expects net profit for 2011 to grow 25% from a year earlier to $40 billion.

Michael C. Lynch: Restraining Gas Exports (and Prices)

Calls for a ban on natural gas exports are perhaps the surest proof of the success of “fracking,” or hydraulic fracturing of shale, which has seen a boom that has depressed wellhead prices by 75 percent, bringing major benefits to both residential and industrial consumers. The benefits to the overall economy include lower inflation, a better balance of trade, and more money in the pockets of consumers. Banning exports of natural gas to keep prices low, as some have suggested, would seem to be a win-win for both the economy and consumers. What could go wrong with the government trying to manipulate commodity markets?

Iraq oil bid delay seen as positive

Iraq is amending contract terms amid signs that ExxonMobil’s move into Kurdistan will go unpunished.

Oman plans 230km gas pipeline to once-sleepy fishing village

The gas supply will be provided by the state-run Petroleum Development Oman from one of its largest gasfields in central Oman.

Oman is developing Duqm to be the second industrial city after Soharin the north-east of the sultanate, in its bid to diversify its oil dependent economy.

Michael Klare: If the Iranian powder keg explodes

No one knows just how high oil prices would go under such circumstances, but many energy analysts believe that the price of a barrel might immediately leap by $50 or more. “You would get an international reaction that would not only be high, but irrationally high,” says Lawrence J. Goldstein, a director of the Energy Policy Research Foundation. Even though military experts assume the U.S. will use its overwhelming might to clear the strait of Iranian mines and obstructions in a few days or weeks, the chaos to follow in the region might not end quickly, keeping oil prices elevated for a long time. Indeed, some analysts fear that oil prices, already hovering around $100 per barrel, would quickly double to more than $200, erasing any prospect of economic recovery in the United States and Western Europe, and possibly plunging the planet into a renewed Great Recession.

The Iranians are well aware of all this, and it is with such a nightmare scenario that they seek to deter Western leaders from further economic sanctions and other more covert acts when they threaten to close the strait. To calm such fears, U.S. officials have been equally adamant in stressing their determination to keep the strait open. In such circumstances of heightened tension, one misstep by either side might prove calamitous and turn mutual rhetorical belligerence into actual conflict.

Iran More Willing to Attack in U.S., National Intelligence Director Says

Iran is stepping up its support for international terrorism and its intelligence operations against the U.S., the Director of National Intelligence told Congress.

Afghans’ attacks on U.S. troops often personal

WASHINGTON (AP) – Supposedly friendly Afghan security forces have attacked U.S. and coalition troops 45 times since May 2007, U.S. officials say, for the first time laying out details and analysis of attacks that have killed 70 and wounded 110.

Egypt snubs U.S. envoy regarding Americans barred from leaving

CAIRO (AP) – The Egyptian justice minister returned a letter Tuesday from the U.S. Ambassador to Egypt asking him to re-examine the issue of Americans barred from leaving the country.

The snub is the latest in a spat between the allies over a politically charged Egyptian investigation into foreign funded groups.

Clinton: U.N. action in Syria won’t be military

UNITED NATIONS (AP) – Vowing to avoid “another Libya,” the U.S. and its allies challenged Russia on Tuesday to overcome its opposition to a U.N. draft resolution demanding that Syrian President Bashar Assad yield power and end the violence that has killed thousands.

Buying Oil Investments – Chapter 11: Peak Oil

The idea of peak oil is that it is a theoretical date at which time the world’s production of oil will have peaked. Any production of oil after this date will be in a state of continuous decline facing an ever decreasing oil reserve. In short, the world’s output of oil can never be increased after this stage. We are all aware that fossil fuels resources are finite and that we might be decades away from peak oil.

Nevertheless, the idea of peak oil has served to spur on developments in other areas of the energy sector hoping that when the date for peak oil arrives we will already have a viable alternative source of fuel in place of oil.

Peak Oil: The Crisis No One Is Talking About

While human innovation has allowed us to use oil as a novel source of energy, and made us an exception in nature, it does not free us from the binding laws of physics. We cannot use more energy than we gather. Neither a single being nor a species as a whole can survive without the energy to sustain it. Energy from fossil fuels can never be replaced once it is burnt, and unlike energy from the Sun it does not flow in an endless stream.

Oil reaches peak after overestimation

Peak oil is a key character in a host of conspiracy theories, but by now has achieved a degree of legitimacy. The theory was postulated in the 1950s when economists began to consider the consequences of employing a highly finite resource as the foundation of the country’s new transportation infrastructure. Observing that oil fields typically have a life cycle, production growing until a point and declining thereafter, economists inferred that a similar condition might be reached by the world’s reserves as a whole should demand continue to increase.

Constructing the modern world on oil now seems to have been a bad idea or at least a fleeting one, as we stand here sixty-odd years later staring at the possibility – that the most advanced sectors of modern civilization will begin a permanent decline – in the face. And it will happen sooner than we think, as the Wiki-leaked State Department cables of last year revealed a radical overestimation of Saudi oil reserves, perhaps by as much as 40 percent.

The Geopolitics of Oil

Oil is one of the most useful substances on this earth, a fact that hasn’t gone unrecognised by world leaders. Billions of pounds and thousands of lives have been spent protecting or seizing oil assets across the globe. If a country is going to go to war, it seems that many people think large oil supplies are a decent enough reason to do so. It is impossible to ignore the historical legacy of what happens to poorly defended countries that are unfortunate enough to have oil and decide they want to keep it. It’s not so much about expanding power, as it about managing an inevitable decline.

Exxon Setback as Shale-Gas Wells Fail in Poland

Exxon Mobil Corp.’s failed shale-gas wells in Poland may hobble the nation’s effort to become one of the world’s major energy sources and dismantle Russian dominance of Eastern European gas markets.

ExxonMobil rakes in $9.4 billion in 4th-quarter profit

ExxonMobil Corp. posted fourth-quarter net income Tuesday of $9.4 billion, up 2 percent from the same quarter a year ago and slightly above market expectations, helped by rising crude oil prices.

It’s also more money than The Bahamas’ annual GDP, according to the CIA Factbook.

Tainted-Well Lawsuits Mount Against Gas Frackers Led by Cabot

For 36 years, Norma Fiorentino drew water from a well near her home in Dimock, Pennsylvania. “It was the best water in town,” she says.

Then on Jan. 1, 2009, she says her well blew up.

Petrobras Shuts Fifth Most Productive Well After Accident

Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PETR4), Brazil’s state-controlled oil producer, shut its fifth most productive well after detecting a leak of 160 barrels in deep waters of the Atlantic Ocean.

BP Must Cover Some Halliburton Gulf Spill Costs, Judge Says

BP Plc (BP) must cover some of any direct damage claims awarded against Halliburton Co. (HAL) for the $40 billion in cleanup costs and economic losses caused by the 2010 oil-well blowout and Gulf of Mexico spill.

Cameron Sues Insurer Over Refusal It Says Threatened BP Deal

Cameron International Corp., facing thousands of claims from the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill, sued one of its insurers for allegedly refusing to pay $50 million in coverage, a move the manufacturer says threatened a $250 million settlement with BP Plc.

Atomic Agency Backs Safety Tests for Japan’s Reactors

TOKYO — A United Nations fact-finding mission on Tuesday tentatively supported new stress tests devised to determine whether Japan’s nuclear plants can withstand another emergency, throwing its weight behind a government push to restart reactors idled in the wake of the disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi plant after an earthquake and tsunami in March.

Japan’s Nuclear Plant Safety Tests Ignore Fukushima Lessons, Advisers Say

Japan’s so-called stress tests to review nuclear plant safety don’t include lessons from the Fukushima Dai-Ichi disaster, effectively ignoring the reason for running the checks, two government advisers said.

California Nuclear plant shuts down reactor as precaution

(Reuters) – One of two reactors at the San Onofre nuclear power station in Southern California was shut down on Tuesday after a small leak was detected in a steam generator tube, but the incident posed no risk to the public or plant workers, the facility operator said.

Quakes and U.S. Reactors: An Analytic Tool

With the release of a computer model of all known geologic faults east of Denver, nearly all of the nuclear power plants in the United States are about to embark on a broad re-evaluation of their vulnerability to earthquakes. The new mapping is the first major update of the fault situation for plants since 1989.

Democrats to unveil anti-price gouging bill

EAST HAVEN, Conn. (AP) – Senate Democratic leaders are unveiling a bill that attempts to protect consumers from price gouging following storms.

Senate President Donald Williams said lawmakers want to build upon an existing law that bans price gouging of gasoline and home heating fuels. They would add weather-related services and products, such as snow rakes and snow removal services.

Obama green jobs program faces further investigation

WASHINGTON – House Republicans are expanding their probe into the Obama administration’s energy programs, investigating $500 million in green job training grants that reached just 10% of its job-placement goal, according to a government report.

Rare Earth Metal Refinery Nears Approval

KUANTAN, Malaysia — The world’s largest refinery for rare earth metals has risen out of the red mud of a coastal swamp here and could soon obtain permission to operate — a step that would help break China’s near monopoly on rare earths but also worsen an emerging glut of some of these strategic minerals.

Is Your Building Gobbling Energy?

A new interactive map prepared by Columbia University’s School of Engineering and Applied Science allows New York City residents to compare estimates of their use of electricity and heat by neighborhood and by building. Posted online on Tuesday, it offers statistics on energy consumption by ZIP code in all five boroughs of the city.

Why Historic Buildings Are Greener Than LEED-Certified New One

Buildings eat up a huge amount of energy—about two-fifths of the country’s total use—so to suppress their appetite for power, efficiency entrepreneurs are churning out a suite of nifty technologies, like automatically shading windows, smarter thermostats, and high-tech heating and cooling systems. But a new report from the National Trust for Historic Preservation’s Preservation Green Lab concludes that constructing new, energy-efficient buildings almost never saves as much energy as renovating old ones.

New York’s Solar Balance Sheet

Despite uncertainties in the solar energy market, New York officials should support the “steady and measured growth” of solar power in the state as part of a balanced renewable energy strategy, a new report recommends.

Train in Vain

The idiotic Department of Transportation rule that’s hobbled America’s mass transit—and the wonderful regulation that may soon replace it.

Gas-tax hike may not be answer to commuter-rail crisis

BOSTON — Transportation Secretary Richard Davey said yesterday he would be “shocked” if a proposal to slash commuter-rail service on nights and weekends was adopted in full this year.

But any plan to keep the trains running is unlikely to include an increase in the gas tax, despite Boston Mayor Tom Menino recently endorsing the tax as an alternative to fare hikes and service cuts.

Foldable electric car debuts in Europe

The commercial version of a two-seater foldable electric car that driver and passenger enter through a pop-out windshield was officially unveiled this week in Europe.

The car, called Hiriko, is powered by four in-wheel motors that each turn a full 90 degrees. Its compact — and compactable — design coupled with four-wheel steering should allow parking in the tightest of spaces on crowded city streets.

India plan to raise tax on diesel vehicles ignites row

The Indian finance ministry’s plan to raise a tax on diesel vehicles, as part of the current national budget, has left motorists and industry chiefs spluttering.

Japan population to shrink by one-third by 2060

TOKYO (AP) — Japan’s population of 128 million will shrink by one-third and seniors will account for 40 percent of people by 2060, placing a greater burden on a smaller working-age population to support the social security and tax systems.

The grim estimate of how rapid aging will shrink Japan’s population was released Monday by the Health and Welfare Ministry.

Kiwis take the lead in heading off global food crisis

Say goodbye to the era of food abundance. And hello to an era of global food scarcity, where hunger and the rising cost of eating has fuelled revolutions in countries such as Tunisia and Egypt.

As the world begins to recognise there is a real food-supply crisis, Kiwis are leading the challenge to the way agriculture is organised internationally, taking principal roles in organising a major international congress on “Rethinking Agriculture”.

Food Crisis as Drought and Cold Hit Mexico

MEXICO CITY — A drought that a government official called the most severe Mexico had ever faced has left two million people without access to water and, coupled with a cold snap, has devastated cropland in nearly half of the country.

The government in the past week has authorized $2.63 billion in aid, including potable water, food and temporary jobs for the most affected areas, rural communities in 19 of Mexico’s 31 states. But officials warned that no serious relief was expected for at least another five months, when the rainy season typically begins in earnest.

Sharon Astyk: Disaster Recovery and Big Government

The increasing number of natural disasters attributable to climate change will make us more dependent on institutional response structures, and we are likely to have no choice but to prioritize those. At the same time, I’m less optimistic than Parenti that this will change rhetoric – after all, disaster recovery is big government, but so is the world’s largest military force, and many of those who oppose big government favor highly interventionist militarism. Imagining a sudden outbreak of consistency seems optimistic to me.

When carbon credits work in the Amazon

For Brazil nut farmers in the Amazon, carbon credits could offer new income.

Kiwi climate sceptics get American funding

New Zealand’s most prominent group of global warming sceptics has received at least $84,000 from an American think-tank which has been backed by fossil fuel interests and accused of “climate change denialism”.

The Chicago-based Heartland Institute paid the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition grants of US$25,000 ($30,800) and US$45,000 in in 2007.

A dangerous shift in Obama’s ‘climate change’ rhetoric

What happened to “climate change” and “global warming”?

The Earth is still getting hotter, but those terms have nearly disappeared from political vocabulary. Instead, they have been replaced by less charged and more consumer-friendly expressions for the warming planet.

In the Little Ice Age, Lessons for Today

“I think people might look at the Little Ice Age and think that all we need to save us from rising temperatures are some volcanic eruptions or the geo-engineering equivalent,” she said. “But when you see what happened when global temperatures dropped by just one degree and you look at current predictions of six or seven degree increases for the future, you realize how precarious things are for life as we know it.”

Al Gore – From Antarctica to Bangladesh: The Story of Rising Seas

The ice on land is melting at a faster rate and large ice sheets are moving toward the ocean more rapidly. As a result, sea levels are rising worldwide. Most of the world’s ice is contained in Antarctica — more than 90 percent. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which lies south of the Peninsula, contains enough water to raise sea levels worldwide by more than 20 feet. Part of the ice sheet, the Pine Island Glacier ice shelf, is among the many in Antarctica that are shrinking at an accelerating rate. This has direct consequences for low-lying coastal and island communities all over the world — and for their inland neighbors.

India’s stake in Arctic cold war

It is ironic that while on the one hand the world is grappling with global warming triggered by climate change, the world’s major powers are scrambling to profit from its consequences in the fragile Arctic zone. There is a deliberate effort to minimise the dangers of the melting of Arctic ice, which may affect the chemical composition of the world’s oceans, raise sea-levels, affect ocean currents and thereby weather patterns across the globe, including our own monsoons, which are vital to our survival.

The End of Elastic Oil

The last ten years have brought a structural change to the world oil market, with changes in demand increasingly playing a role in maintaining the supply/demand balance. These changes will come at an increasingly onerous cost to our economy unless we take steps to make our demand for oil more flexible.

We’re not running out of oil. There’s still plenty of oil still in the ground. Oil which was previously too expensive to exploit becomes economic with a rising oil price. To the uncritical observer, it might seem as if there is nothing to worry about in the oil market.

Unfortunately, there is something to worry about, at least if we want a healthy economy. The new oil reserves we’re now exploiting are not only more expensive to develop, but they also take much longer between the time the first well is drilled and the when the first oil is produced. That means it takes longer for oil supply to respond to changes in price.

Global Oil Production Update: A Strange Future Has Arrived

Since 2005, European oil consumption has fallen by 1.5 million barrels a day. And, in the same period, US oil consumption has fallen by 2 million barrels a day. If oil was priced at $60 a barrel, rather than $100 a barrel, then a fair portion of that lost demand might return. Instead, since 2005, global crude oil production has been bumping up against a ceiling around 74 million barrels a day. Thus, the tremendous growth in oil demand which emanates from the developing world, in Asia primarily, has been supplied by the reduction of demand in Europe and the United States. Why doesn’t the world simply increase the production of oil to 77, or 78 million barrels a day? After all, that is precisely the history of global oil production: a continual increase in supply to capture the advantage of rising prices.

Oil Falls a Second Day on Speculation EU Talks May Fail to Resolve Crisis

Oil dropped for a second day in New York on speculation that European Union leaders meeting today may fail to resolve the region’s debt crisis, while OPEC’s secretary-general said the market is well-supplied.

Futures slipped as much as 0.9 percent as stocks dropped and the dollar strengthened. EU chiefs will gather in Brussels today to complete a German-led deficit-control treaty and endorse a 500 billion-euro ($660 billion) rescue fund. Hedge funds and other large speculators increased wagers on rising crude prices, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitment of Traders report on Jan. 27 showed.

OPEC Sees No Shortage Of Oil In Any Region

LONDON — OPEC’s secretary general said Monday that there is currently no shortage of oil anywhere, despite current supply concerns.

The remarks come after the oil minister for Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said it intended to remain stable supplier to markets.

U.N. considers resolution amid reports of heavy fighting in Syria

(CNN) — The U.N. Security Council will take up a draft resolution this week that calls on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down and transfer power.

The move follows news that the Arab League suspended a mission to monitor whether al-Assad was abiding by an agreement to end a brutal crackdown against anti-government protesters.

‘Terrorist’ group hits Syrian pipeline

DAMASCUS, Syria (UPI) — A “terrorist” attack Monday struck a natural gas pipeline running from the restive Syrian city of Homs, Syrian state media reported.

The official Syrian Arab News Agency reported that an “armed terrorist group” attacked a natural gas pipeline running from Homs to the western coastal city of Banyas. No injuries were reported.

China, Japan scramble for oil as Sudan shuts fields

SINGAPORE – The shutdown in Sudanese oil supply could drive up already record premiums on spot crude markets as top Sudan customers China and Japan scramble for alternatives even as they weigh the impact on oil flows of international sanctions on Iran.

South Sudan has shut down its oil output, estimated at around 350,000 barrels per day (bpd), as it and neighbour Sudan row over how to disentangle their oil industries, borders and debt.

Sudan to release oil tankers

Khartoum has announced it will release tankers carrying oil from South Sudan in a bid to end the standoff over crude exports. The dispute has led to a shutdown of oil production in South Sudan.

Sudan’s seizure of the ships escalated a row over transit fees for South Sudanese crude. Efforts to broker an agreement have so far failed.

Iran Parliament Debates Ban on Oil to Europe as Nuclear Inspectors Arrive

International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors arrived in Tehran today for talks on Iran’s nuclear program while lawmakers drafted a ban on oil sales to Europe.

“We are looking forward to the start of a dialogue, a dialogue that’s overdue,” Chief Inspector Herman Nackaerts, who’s heading the six-member IAEA team, said in comments cited on the website of state-run Press TV. The delegation will stay in the country for three days, Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi told reporters in Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital.

Gulf Arabs have plans against Hormuz closure-official

(Reuters) – Coastguards and naval forces of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) group of Arab countries have contingency plans for a possible attempt by Iran to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a Kuwaiti maritime official said on Monday.

Five of the six GCC members – Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait – rely on the world’s most important energy shipping lane being open to export most of their oil and gas.

Iran: Oil to reach $150 a barrel

Oil prices could hit $150 a barrel as a result of the ongoing international standoff over Iran’s nuclear programme, the head of the country’s state oil company said yesterday.

Ahmad Qalehbani, chief of the National Iranian Oil Company, made the remarks as Tehran ponders cutting off exports to Europe, before a proposed EU embargo on Iranian crude is due to come into effect. The embargo is set to go into effect in the summer, but Iran says it may cut the flow of crude to Europe early. “It seems we will witness prices from $120 to $150 in the future,” Qalehbani was quoted as saying by Iran’s official news agency.

South Korean President Seeks Alternatives to Iranian Crude

South Korea’s president is to visit Saudi Arabia and two other Gulf oil producers in an attempt to secure stable sources of energy. The trip will come as Seoul is considering reducing imports from Iran in line with U.S.-led sanctions. But the government of South Korea, heavily dependent on energy supplies from abroad, is expressing caution about the international movement to punish Iran for its alleged nuclear weapons development.

The consequences of war for Saudi Arabia

Discussion of a possible war between Iran and the coalition aligning against it centers on destroying Iranian nuclear sites and ensuring that oil tankers freely transit the Strait of Hormuz. Countries embarking on war scrutinize as many scenarios and possibilities as they can, but wars invariably present unexpected situations and changes within their borders are seldom anticipated.

To Mend Ties After Clash, Kazakhstan Makes an Offer

ZHANAOZEN, Kazakhstan — Despite the vast wealth of nearby oil fields, this industrial settlement in the desert of western Kazakhstan is a picture of rural poverty. Sheep meander through the town. The streets, mostly unpaved, are so deeply rutted that cars must slow to a crawl.

“Nothing remains for the people,” said Yezev Marzabai, a local oil worker. The worst part of his job, he said, was not the low pay or hard labor: it was watching tens of thousands of dollars worth of oil pass in front of his face every day. “All the wealth goes to the leaders.”

Kazakh Chevron JV says 2011 output 25.8 mln tonnes

(Reuters) – Tengizchevroil, the Kazakh oil venture led by U.S. energy major Chevron Corp, said on Monday that crude production in 2011 totalled 25.8 million tonnes, or 0.4 percent less than the 25.9 million tonnes produced in 2010.

Putin call to ‘cut Gazprom stake’

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has called for the government to reduce its stake in state-owned companies, including gas monopoly Gazprom, according to a report.

Sakhalin-II Project to Reach Full Cost Recovery in Q1

The Sakhalin-II oil and gas project, which Gazprom is implementing with foreign partners on production-sharing terms off Russia’s Pacific Coast, will reach its full cost recovery in the first quarter of 2012, Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko said on Monday.

“We expect the project to reach full cost recovery in the first quarter of 2012, two years ahead of schedule,” Shmatko said.

Russia: No Further Changes To Energy Production Sharing Agreements

MOSCOW – Russian Energy Minister Sergey Shmatko said Monday that all major issues have been resolved regarding production sharing agreements, or PSAs, that were signed in the 1990s with companies such as ExxonMobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell PLC.

“The issue of PSAs has been settled for good,” Shmatko told government officials and company executives at a meeting in Moscow.

Belarus to host more of Russia’s gas

MOSCOW (UPI) — Russian energy company Gazprom said it aims to increase the amount of natural gas it sends through Belarus to European consumers this year.

White House pressure on Gulf oil leak figures alleged

Official estimates of how much oil leaked into the Gulf of Mexico during the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster turned out to be well below the mark. Now an advocacy group has filed a complaint of misconduct to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) against the scientist who compiled the estimates, alleging he “lowballed” the numbers after political pressure from the White House, among others.

Obama’s energy plan: The winners, and winners

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — President Obama’s half dozen energy proposals will, by and large, benefit nearly all players in the energy space and result in lower prices for consumers, analysts say.

Activists enter British Gas headquarters in fuel protest

A group of activists has occupied the British Gas headquarters in Surrey to protest at fuel bills.

Fuel Poverty Action said six people had “barricaded themselves into meeting rooms” at the offices in Staines.

In a statement, the group said it was targeting British Gas as it was one of the “big six energy firms making profits out of rising energy bills”.

Economics alone should drive countries away from crude oil

The analysis is robust, and the authors lament that the economic argument has been “lodged more firmly in the minds of policy-makers.” But I think another problem lies in the rhetoric behind ‘peak oil.’ For decades, environmentalists and economists have forewarned that we will one day reach peak oil, hitting a wall in production, and thus need to shift to other fuel sources. But it’s like the boy who cried wolf: every time we hear the phrase “peak oil” and the prediction goes unfulfilled, it becomes a little easier to shrug off.

Renewable Energy Deals Buck Uncertainty to Rise 40%, PWC Says

Renewable energy mergers and acquisitions rose 40 percent in value last year, bucking the uncertainty caused by the European Union debt crisis, the global consultant PwC said today.

Dubai seeks renewable power sources for the future

With electricity demand growing by the year, the emirate’s Supreme Council of Energy has set targets and is on the lookout for ways it can diversify its sources.

India’s Largest Solar Program Cuts Power Rates by As Much as 33%

India’s largest solar program cut the preferential rate it pays utilities for sun power as much as 33 percent as global prices of panels declined by more than half.

A Plea for Southern Treasures

The Southern Environmental Law Center, a Virginia-based nonprofit legal advocacy group, has released its 2012 list of the Top 10 endangered places in the Southeast, environmentally speaking. While the list changes from year to year, certain places like the Chesapeake Bay remain a top concern — and issues like pollution from coal-fired power plants and the protection of public lands and old-growth forests are recurring themes. While the list only considers six states, the issues raised by each site resonate nationally, and even globally.

Selling the Farm(er): What the Trans Pacific Partnership Means for Canada’s Dairy Farmers

Credit ratings of once powerful nations are in the tank. The Euro is in trouble. The Occupy movement is on the march, resonating with many who sense legitimacy behind its youthful messaging.

Add to this global concerns regarding peak oil, climate change, food security, sovereignty and safety, the buy-up of farmland by foreign investors and the transition to fuel crops and it is beyond clear that governments have a profound responsibility to enact good public policy to ensure the sustainability (read permanence) of our farm sector.

California fuels rule sparks controversy

Just as it pioneered curbs on greenhouse gas emissions from cars and light trucks a decade ago, California is championing standards that could transform the fuel that goes into their tanks.

But its new rule, which requires lowering the amount of carbon in fuel sold in the state, has become embroiled in a fierce public battle and has been barred from being enforced. In light of tight state budgets, litigation over California’s program and a strong lobbying campaign against them, the question is whether the ambitious climate policy will get off the ground.

Power paradox: Clean might not be green forever

While this kind of work is still at an early stage, some startling conclusions are already beginning to emerge. Nuclear power – including fusion – is not the long-term answer to our energy problems. Even renewable energies such as wind power will have to be used with caution, because large-scale extraction could have both local and global effects. These effects are not necessarily a bad thing, though. We might be able to exploit them to geoengineer the climate and combat global warming.

There is a fundamental problem facing any planet-bound civilisation, as Eric Chaisson of the Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Massachusetts, points out. Whatever you use energy for, it almost all ends up as waste heat.

Climate-driven heat peaks may shrink wheat crops

More intense heat waves due to global warming could diminish wheat crop yields around the world through premature ageing, according to a study published Sunday in Nature Climate Change.

Louisiana scientists working on plan to save coastline, fight global warming

A team of Louisiana scientists is laying the groundwork for creating a new carbon storage industry that could both reduce the effects of global warming and rebuild wetlands along the state’s coastline. Sarah Mack, founder of New Orleans-based Tierra Resources, and Louisiana State University wetlands scientists John W. Day and Robert Lane have come up with a method for measuring the molecules of carbon removed from the atmosphere by the soils and plants that are created with coastal restoration projects.

Developer concerned about sea level predictions

Lake Macquarie Council’s effort to manage the impact of rising sea levels has again raised the ire of developer Jeff McCloy, this time over his plans to develop the former Pasminco smelter site.

A council flood study found thousands of lakeside properties would be in danger of flooding by 2100 due to rising seas.

Mr McCloy has already threatened a class action against the Council for devaluing waterfront properties.

Cesare Marchetti proposed hydrogen (H2) as a large-scale energy vector almost fifty years ago. The main concern then was to find a simple way to feed transport systems with what seemed to be a fountain of energy about to come from the expanding nuclear park. The nuclear dream is largely gone, but hydrogen lives on. Is this dream about to come true as a piece in the transition puzzle to a post-fossil fuel world? That’s what I was expecting to find out.

Home concept

Today the hydrogen dream is very different from Marchetti’s. It starts with a home, self-reliant and grid-disconnected, housing a micro-generation system, mostly solar and wind, that primarily feeds the electrical system. Then surplus energy is converted into hydrogen and stored in a container in a special division of the house. This hydrogen can later be used to generate electricity through a fuel cell when the micro-systems do not match the instantaneous power needs; the waste heat generated by the fuel cell can also be used to heat the house. Finally, this hydrogen can be used to feed one or more vehicles powered by fuel cells. A general presentation along these lines opened the session by Sophie Didierjean from the University of Lorraine.

There is an obvious philosophical dimension to this dream that I won’t explore here because tje technical aspects are enough to question it. This dream is, in a way, an attempt to save suburbia in the US, that has been successfully exported to Europe. It happens that suburbia here is the exception rather than the norm, as European suburbs are synonymous with cheap vertical housing, where most folk park their vehicles in the streets and commute by mass transit.

There is then another important issue – financing. For a new house, this technology pipeline can easily increase costs by 50% on a rough estimate, added to which is the increased cost of vehicles. These cost increases translate themselves into higher debt levels, that combined with present-day interest rates can be a killer. For grid connected solutions we have feed-in tariffs that anticipate financial returns and offload investor risk, but for disconnected solutions, this isn’t the case. The case can be posed for directed subsidies for the acquisition of disconnected technologies, but it misses the social contract that feed-in tariffs force, guaranteeing that micro-producers are the most effective possible, favouring higher net energy; this is something much harder to accomplish with disconnected solutions. Once again this can easily become a philosophical discussion – should society finance a system that translates into detachment from it?

Hydrolysis

Going straight to the crux of the matter, I’ll jump to Volker Loos, from the Fachhochschule of Trier, who gave a general presentation on the possibilities of H2 as an energy vector. I’ll have to start from the finish, since it was during the Q&A session of this talk that the critical question came from the audience regarding the efficiency of hydrolysis today. At best this figure can approach 80% for a water temperature between 70 ºC and 80 ºC. Not bad, but the problem is that the process of H2 usage has just begun; after that comes compression, storage in a container, decompression and electrochemical processing through a fuel cell or by combustion. In all these steps there are mass and energy losses that further cut efficiency; the end result is far from mature electrical storage technologies like back pumping in dams or magnetic flywheels, and also far from other emerging technologies like large scale compressed air storage.

Another thing worth retaining from this presentation is the idea of injecting H2 generated at renewable energy parks into the natural gas supply grid. If there is a way I can see H2 working out, it is that there are only two conversion steps in the process, hydrolysis and combustion. Apart from that it is also important that most of the infrastructure is already in place. The idea is quite simple: using the natural gas grid as a large buffer when demand isn’t there for the electricity generated by renewables. The obstacles I see to this scheme are that in the first place, the suitability of the grid, designed to transport a considerably heavier molecule (methane) thus perhaps permeable to H2, thus raising security and efficiency questions. And finally, the entire efficiency of the process: assuming a best case 80% for hydrolysis, no mass losses and 60% for a combined cycle combustion, the end result is below 50%.

Finally, Volker Loos mentioned that several automakers have plans to introduce fuel cell powered cars in the following years: Mercedes in 2014, Toyota and General Motors in 2015, and Volkswagen in 2020. The price of these cars is at this time estimated to be 20% over that of present day hybrids. It remains to be seen what the impact of the increased demand for platinum will be on these estimates.

Platinum

And then to talk about platinum was Nathalie Job from the Universiy of Liège, an institution presently researching synthetic carbons to produce electron conductors for fuel cells. These conductors should both reduce the rate of platinum used per fuel cell and increase the life time. The details of this work can easily go into electrochemical aspects that are well outside my realm of knowledge. A read of this article may help you get a better idea of what this research is about.

Nevertheless, one can have an idea how important this issue is by using basic algebra. Platinum is one of a handful of metals known to man that are denser than gold, found in the crust in about the same abundance as the latter. But platinum is much harder to find and mine, thus its annual production is about 10% of that of gold, in the order of 200 tonnes. Every year close to 60 million cars are produced in the world – if all of them required the usage of platinum, those 200 tonnes would translate into little over 3 grams (about 0.15 cm³) per car; fuels cells require in the order of 0.5 grams of platinum per W of power output. Any massification of fuel cells shall require totally platinum-free technology.

Chemical storage

Then, on the chemical side of things was Yaroslav Filinchuk from the Catholic University of Louvain. He came to present a theoretical concept for the storage of H2 using borohydrides, an highly reactive, porous material that can store light gases. The basic idea is to use the hollow spaces that the molecular structures of these materials create to “lock” inside smaller molecules. The main advantage is the possibility of storing H2 at ambient temperatures, thus avoiding energy losses in compression/decompression or liquefaction/gasification processes. They may also reduce mass losses during storage, but once again my knowledge is thin on the field, so I recommend again a closer reading of a recent article on the subject.

Continuous electrical generation

Ending the session was a host speaker, Angel Scipioni from the IUT, presenting the energy mix of France. This was mostly a generalist address with lots of interesting numbers cast here and there, clearly showing that the largest state of the EU has lagged somewhat behind on the build-up of renewable infrastructure, because it has a huge nuclear park. What struck me was a direct reference to Peak Oil, but in the past tense, as an additional reason for a transition to renewables and H2. Even though acknowledging it, Angel Scipioni seemed not give much importance to it, stating that France had so far coped well with higher petrol and diesel prices. I wonder how widespread this sort of view is; in any case it is a reminder of how far the awareness raising process still has to go.

Angel Scipioni finished his talk quickly, explaining a research project presently in place at the IUT. The idea is to combine different renewable energy technologies with H2 generation and storage to build a system capable of continuous electrical generation. The concept uses, for instance, technologies that generate electricity from low-speed winds. One day I’d like to see an net energy assessment of such system.

Conclusion

So the hydrogen dream lives on. Where will these research projects lead? Are all of them in vain? Perhaps not, but hydrogen continuously appears somewhat behind alternative technologies; for a massification of it to use as an energy carrier, nothing short of a revolution will do. In many regards, huge steps forward will have to be made in order to bring efficiency into a comfortable zone. With several other technologies closing in on maturity, there doesn’t seem to be much time left. And finally, whenever I reflect upon hydrogen, I’m always somewhat baffled as to why molecules like ammonia (heavier) or methanol (heavier and less hazardous) aren’t preferred as energy carriers.

Russian production in 2009, broken down by region (the total is 10.48 mbd) (EIA)

Back in 2007, production was at 70% of total Russian crude oil production with a daily production of 7 mbd., so changes in the mix already were occurring. At its peak in 1980, Samotlor, the largest field in the region, was producing at 3.4 mbd, out of a Soviet production of 12.5 mbd. Samotlor is thus ranked 7th in the world in terms of original oil reserves, and as a comment on the times, it still ranks 6th in the world in terms of daily production even while production has fallen to 750 kbd. Initial reserves stood at 27 billion barrels of oil, though this was not initially evident when the field was discovered in 1965. Water cut has increasingly taken its toll of the field, and now runs at around 90%.

Gas Flare over Samotlor in the marshes of West Siberia (Geotimes)

It took some persuasion to get the Soviet oil industry to move that far East. The new fields were some 600 miles further East than those of the Western Urals, and the country was divided between taiga and swamp. There weren’t a whole lot of people, either.

The different regions of Russian oil production (Petroneft)

Much of that has changed, with the center of the oil industry now located in and around Khanty-Mansiysk, built mainly after 1931 when it became the capital of the Ostyako-Vogulsky National Okrug. A settlement since 1637, it was given its current name in 1940, and became a city in 1950. As a sign of the changing times, the provincial budget from oil revenues was $4.5 billion in 2008.

Oil seeps have been reported in the outcropping of rocks along the Ob River since the seventeeth century, and I.M. Gubkin, the founder of petroleum geology in the Soviet Union, predicted the presence of oil as early as 1932. Serious exploration began in 1954. In 1962, a well drilled near Tazovsky produced natural gas at a flow rate of a million cu m (35 mcf) a day and the Tazovskoye oil and gas field had been found. Originally it was developed as an oil field, but more recently its natural gas potential has been more fully recognized, as has that of the entire Yamal Peninsula. (And at the same time, that 70% of Soviet oil was coming from Western Siberia, so was 90% of their natural gas.)

The oil and gas fields of Western Siberia (after Grace – Russian Oil Supply)

Tazovsky by Vghik (Google Earth)

The northern part of the West Siberian Basin (which, as Grace points out, covers an area about four times the size of France) has been where the most recent exploration has taken place. But it was further south and east along the Ob River that the first three major fields, Fedorovskoye and Mamontovskoye near Surgut, and Samotlor, which lay further East near Nizhnevartosk, were found between 1963 and 1965. An oil pipeline was laid in 1967, allowing year-round production. From the beginning, construction and development was a problem given the local geography, and ways had to be found of getting production equipment into the marshy ground and getting the oil and gas out. For many years, the Ob river was the main highway.

These three fields underpinned Soviet oil production through the 1980s, and with the 14 fields that were added in the second generation, the 7 that came on line for the third generation, and the 8 that made up the fourth generation, kept the Soviet Union well supplied until its collapse at the end of 1991.

Crude Oil Production from Western Siberia (Grace – Russian Oil Supply)

Over the past decade, these fields have been rehabilitated and raised production by more than 60% over that at the depths of the crash, after the dissolution of the Union.

Fedorovskoye is run by Surgetneftegas, a company that drilled 1,403 wells in 2011, including 708,000 ft of exploration. In 1993 the company was allowed to become an open joint stock company. The field, which peaked at a production of around 1 mbd in 1983, is now referred to as the Fedorovsko-Surgutskoye and with a current production of 400 kbd it ranks 14th largest in the world. As a sign of the times, perhaps, the new fields that Surgetneftefas is developing are, however, in Eastern Siberia.

Mamonskoye is run by Yuganskneftegaz and was acquired by Rosneft in 2005. It too peaked at around 1 mbd, though in 1986. The company estimates that in the Khanty-Mansiysk region, its 30 licensed areas still retain a reserve:annual production ratio of 24 years.

This includes the Northern part of the Priobskoye field, the “Pearl of West Siberia,” discovered in 1982, and brought on line in 1989, and the Prirazlomnoye field which is the Russian offshore (a third future topic). The Priobskoye field was producing at 650 kbd in 2009, when it was ranked as the 8th largest producer, with plans to further increase production through 2013.

Fields around Khanty-Mansiisk, including Priobskoye (JPT)

The Southern part of the Priobskoye field is being run by Gazprom Neft, the oil branch of the Russian gas company. In 2007, Rosneft produced an average 550 kbd from the Northern half of the field, while Gazprom was producing 127 kbd. Gazprom has about 40% of the field. Production has been helped in more recent times with the use of Schlumberger’s advanced down-hole motors and technology.

Down-hole motors used at Priobskoye.

Also in the region, and similarly just coming on line are the wells of the Salym Project, which, last 25 September reached a production record for them of 177 kbd. The oilfields include West Salym (reserves estimated at 630 million barrels; Upper Salym (reserves estimated at 150 mb) and Vadelyp also at 150 mb.

One of the problems of sustaining production, even given this wealth of opportunity, lies in the need for considerable investment to make it happen.

Coburn (pdf) has pointed out that only 60% of the investment needed in 2009 to sustain the industry was forthcoming, and suggests that the $110 billion needed for exploration and development before 2016, and most of this will have to be spent further East in Siberia and Sakhalin (which will be visited in future posts). He further notes that Lukoil have suggested that $1 trillion will be required to sustain production at current levels. This will include a further production from Western Siberia to the tune of 45.5 billion barrels. Given that most of the larger, older fields are showing depletion levels of 70% or so this is going to have to come from developing a larger number of smaller fields. But that will take an investment that is still doubtful, though Lukoil are investing some $24 billion in downstream operations, showing that they are anticipating getting the oil from somewhere.

Given the size of the Basin, I have not spent enough time today on natural gas too much of which is still flared, so I will return to the region again.

Natural gas prices have declined to below $3.00/mcf, levels not seen for years, yet the EIA posted the highest gas production ever in October, 2011. U.S. gas production is growing despite annual well completion rates that are half that at the peak of the drilling boom in 2008, when gas price topped $12.00/mcf. Proponents of shale gas as a “game changer” suggest that, despite the well-known high decline rates of shale gas wells, their productivity is sufficient to grow production with far fewer wells at historically low prices. Others, such as Arthur Berman, claim that shale gas plays require much higher prices to be economic. The answer may lie in the gas produced in association with oil drilling, which is near all time historical highs.

Figure 1 illustrates the annual number of gas wells and gas production documented by the EIA. Although drilling is still well above 1990’s levels, it is only half that of the all time record drilling levels reached in 2008.

Natural Gas Production versus Annual Drilling Rates, 1990-2011

Figure 1 – Annualized U.S. natural gas production and drilling rates, 1990-2011.

U.S. natural gas production has reached production levels of 4.6 percent above the previous 1973 peak, and nearly 16% above the recent 2001 peak. While some of this increase is likely due to delayed tie-ins from the 2008 drilling boom, and some due to the high initial productivities of shale gas wells, these are not likely the whole story.

Hydraulic fracturing has certainly changed the game with respect to gas production from shales and tight rocks, albeit with widely reported collateral damage including methane leakage into groundwater, pollution from produced frackwater disposal on the surface, induced earthquakes from frackwater injection into disposal wells and the environmental footprint of industrialized landscapes. Equally important is the game changing nature of applying hydraulic fracturing to producing oil from shales.

Figure 2 illustrates annualized crude oil production versus well drilling rates. Drilling rates are near all time highs, more than double the rates of the 1990’s, and have succeeded in increasing production to levels not seen since late 2003 (yet down 42% from 1971). Production has grown by 0.65 million barrels per day above the all time low in U.S. oil production in May, 2008, causing some pundits to declare a new era of “American energy independence”.

Crude Oil Production versus Annual Drilling Rates, 1990-2011

Figure 2 – Annualized U.S. crude oil production and drilling rates, 1990-2011.

Large amounts of natural gas are produced in conjunction with the production of hydraulically fractured shale oil and in association with conventional oil drilling. Given the price differential between oil and gas at present many companies have changed their focus to shale oil or liquids rich shale gas to enhance economic returns. Although much associated gas in the production of shale oil is simply flared, as in the Bakken play in North Dakota, much is also produced into the market even at current low prices. Thus the apparent “too- good-to-be-true” statistics showing growing gas production with declining drilling are simply that – too- good-to-be-true. The record drilling for oil, and its contribution to gas production, is masking the high drilling rates required to grow gas production in the EIA statistics (which classify a well as either “oil” or “gas” depending on its principal product).

Drill baby drill – Recent drilling rates are near all time highs

Production decline rates in both shale gas and shale oil wells are very high – first year declines in Barnett shale gas wells are in the order of 65% and are higher in Haynesville wells. Similar decline rates are observed in shale oil plays. Thus new wells must continually be drilled to offset depletion in existing wells. Figure 3 illustrates the aggregate footage drilled for oil and gas in the U.S. and the average depth of the wells.

Annual Footage Drilled versus Average Well Depth 1990-2011

Figure 3 – Annualized U.S. aggregate footage drilled and average well depth, 1990-2011.

It can be seen that the footage drilled is near all time historical highs. And it can be argued that a hydraulically fractured foot, drilled in 2012, required much higher inputs of energy and capital investment than a foot drilled in 1980, as the deposits targeted are so much more challenging (or marginal, depending on your perspective). In addition, the average depth of a well is 40 percent deeper than it was in 1990. This reflects the declining EROEI associated with domestic U.S. oil and gas production, which can only be expected to decline further going forward.

So, despite vocal industry proponents to the contrary, there is no such thing as a free lunch. Growing, or even maintaining, U.S. oil and gas production will require an increasing level of inputs in terms of the number of wells drilled, the footage drilled, the capital investments required, and likely, the large amounts of collateral environmental damage incurred.

Editor’s note: This post spawned a vigorous debate among the editors that has delayed publication by about a week. This debate revolved around the contribution made by shale gas and shale oil plays to overall US gas production, the impact of delayed hook ups to production figures and the veracity of EIA data. These issues are open for debate in the comments.

Russian production in 2009, broken down by region (the total is 10.48 mbd) (EIA)

Back in 2007, production was at 70% of total Russian crude oil production with a daily production of 7 mbd., so changes in the mix already were occurring. At its peak in 1980, Samotlor, the largest field in the region, was producing at 3.4 mbd, out of a Soviet production of 12.5 mbd. Samotlor is thus ranked 7th in the world in terms of original oil reserves, and as a comment on the times, it still ranks 6th in the world in terms of daily production even while production has fallen to 750 kbd. Initial reserves stood at 27 billion barrels of oil, though this was not initially evident when the field was discovered in 1965. Water cut has increasingly taken its toll of the field, and now runs at around 90%.

Gas Flare over Samotlor in the marshes of West Siberia (Geotimes)

It took some persuasion to get the Soviet oil industry to move that far East. The new fields were some 600 miles further East than those of the Western Urals, and the country was divided between taiga and swamp. There weren’t a whole lot of people, either.

The different regions of Russian oil production (Petroneft)

Much of that has changed, with the center of the oil industry now located in and around Khanty-Mansiysk, built mainly after 1931 when it became the capital of the Ostyako-Vogulsky National Okrug. A settlement since 1637, it was given its current name in 1940, and became a city in 1950. As a sign of the changing times, the provincial budget from oil revenues was $4.5 billion in 2008.

Oil seeps have been reported in the outcropping of rocks along the Ob River since the seventeeth century, and I.M. Gubkin, the founder of petroleum geology in the Soviet Union, predicted the presence of oil as early as 1932. Serious exploration began in 1954. In 1962, a well drilled near Tazovsky produced natural gas at a flow rate of a million cu m (35 mcf) a day and the Tazovskoye oil and gas field had been found. Originally it was developed as an oil field, but more recently its natural gas potential has been more fully recognized, as has that of the entire Yamal Peninsula. (And at the same time, that 70% of Soviet oil was coming from Western Siberia, so was 90% of their natural gas.)

The oil and gas fields of Western Siberia (after Grace – Russian Oil Supply)

Tazovsky by Vghik (Google Earth)

The northern part of the West Siberian Basin (which, as Grace points out, covers an area about four times the size of France) has been where the most recent exploration has taken place. But it was further south and east along the Ob River that the first three major fields, Fedorovskoye and Mamontovskoye near Surgut, and Samotlor, which lay further East near Nizhnevartosk, were found between 1963 and 1965. An oil pipeline was laid in 1967, allowing year-round production. From the beginning, construction and development was a problem given the local geography, and ways had to be found of getting production equipment into the marshy ground and getting the oil and gas out. For many years the Ob river was the main highway.

These three fields underpinned Soviet oil production through the 1980’s, and with the 14 fields that were added in the second generation, the 7 that came on line for the third, and the 8 that made up the fourth generation, they kept the Soviet Union well supplied until its collapse at the end of 1991.

Crude Oil Production from Western Siberia (Grace – Russian Oil Supply)

Over the past decade these fields have been rehabilitated and raised production by more than 60% over that at the depths of the crash, after the dissolution of the Union.

Fedorovskoye is run by Surgetneftegas, a company that drilled 1,403 wells in 2011, including 708,000 ft of exploration. In 1993 the company was allowed to become an open joint stock company. The field, which peaked at a production of around 1 mbd in 1983, is now referred to as the Fedorovsko-Surgutskoye and with a current production of 400 kbd it ranks 14th largest in the world. As a sign of the times, perhaps, the new fields that Surgetneftefas are developing are, however, in Eastern Siberia.

Mamonskoye is run by Yuganskneftegaz and was acquired by Rosneft in 2005. It too peaked at around 1 mbd, though in 1986. The company estimates that in the Khanty-Mansiysk region its 30 license areas still retain a reserve:annual production ratio of 24 years.

This includes the Northern part of the Priobskoye field, the “Pearl of West Siberia,” discovered in 1982, and brought on line in 1989, and the Prirazlomnoye field which is the Russian offshore (a third future topic). The Priobskoye field was producing at 650 kbd in 2009, when it was ranked as the 8th largest producer, with plans to further increase production through 2013.

Fields around Khanty-Mansiisk, including Priobskoye (JPT)

The Southern part of the Priobskoye field is being run by Gazprom Neft the oil branch of the Russian gas company. In 2007 Rosneft produced an average 550 kbd from the Northern half of the field, while Gazprom was producing 127 kbd. Gazprom has about 40% of the field. Production has been helped in more recent times with the use of Schlumberger’s advanced down-hole motors and technology.

Down-hole motors used at Priobskoye.

Also in the region, and similarly just coming on line are the wells of the Salym Project, which, last Sept 25th reached a production record for them of 177 kbd. The oilfields include West Salym (reserves estimated at 630 million barrels; Upper Salym (reserves estimated at 150 mb) and Vadelyp also at 150 mb.

One of the problems of sustaining production, even given this wealth of opportunity, lies in the need for considerable investment to make it happen.

Coburn (pdf) has pointed out that only 60% of the investment needed in 2009 to sustain the industry was forthcoming, and suggests that the $110 billion needed for exploration and development before 2016, and most of this will have to be spent further East in Siberia and Sakhalin (which will be visited in future posts). He further notes that Lukoil have suggested that $1 trillion will be required to sustain production at current levels. This will include a further production from Western Siberia to the tune of 45.5 billion barrels. Given that most of the larger, older fields are showing depletion levels of 70% or so this is going to have to come from developing a larger number of smaller fields. But that will take an investment that is still doubtful, though Lukoil are investing some $24 billion in downstream operations, showing that they are anticipating getting the oil from somewhere.

Given the size of the Basin, I have not spent enough time today on natural gas too much of which is still flared, so I will return to the region again.

BP emails reveal company veiling spill rate estimates from well even as rig sank

NEW ORLEANS — On the day the Deepwater Horizon sank, BP officials warned in an internal memo that if the well was not protected by the blow-out preventer at the drill site, crude oil could burst into the Gulf of Mexico at a rate of 3.4 million gallons a day, an amount a million gallons higher than what the government later believed spilled daily from the site.

The email conversation, which BP agreed to release Friday as part of federal court proceedings, suggests BP managers recognized the potential of the disaster in its early hours, and company officials sought to make sure that the model-developed information wasn’t shared with outsiders. The emails also suggest BP was having heated discussions with Coast Guard officials over the potential of the oil spill.

Oil Increases This Week as Gasoline Surges, Greece Nears Debt Agreement

Oil climbed this week as gasoline jumped to the highest level since August and amid signs Greece is near an agreement with its creditors.

Futures rose 1.1 percent this week after gasoline surged on speculation that refinery outages and plant closures will cut supplies. Olli Rehn, the European Union’s commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, said an agreement is “very close” on private-sector involvement in a Greek debt swap.

Refinery closings could push gasoline prices back to $4

Gasoline prices could be edge higher this spring, thanks to the bankruptcy of a European refiner, the industry’s latest casualty.

The U.S. east coast already sees the threat of a temporary spike in gasoline to $4 or more per gallon for the summer driving season and could pay some of the highest prices in the nation, due to the shutdown of refining capacity in that market.

Exxon to sell large part of Tonen stake for about $3.9 bln-sources

(Reuters) – Exxon Mobil plans to sell a large part of its 50 percent stake in TonenGeneral Sekiyu KK back to its Japanese refining partner in a deal that could be worth about 300 billion yen, and will make an announcement as early as Monday, four sources with direct knowledge of the matter said.

Exxon Mobil will retain about a 20 percent stake in TonenGeneral but the deal will mark a de facto retreat from the world’s third-largest economy by the U.S. oil giant, which is focusing its resources on emerging markets and development of natural resources.

Kazakhstan’s embattled opposition holds rare rally in nation’s largest city

ALMATY, Kazakhstan — Hundreds of opposition supporters protested the results of recent elections and the violent suppression of an oil workers protest at a demonstrationi Saturday in Kazakhstan’s commercial capital.

Arab League halts observer mission in Syria

BEIRUT (AP) — The Arab League halted its observer mission to Syria on Saturday, sharply criticizing the regime of President Bashar Assad for escalating violence in recent days that has killed at least 80 people across the country.

The rising bloodshed has added urgency to new attempts by Arab and Western countries to find a resolution to the 10 months of violence that according to the United Nations has killed at least 5,400 people as Assad seeks to crush persistent protests demanding an end to his rule.

US Embassy: US citizen kidnapped in Nigeria freed

Foreign firms have pumped oil out of the delta for more than 50 years. Despite the billions flowing into Nigeria’s government, many in the delta remain desperately poor, living in polluted waters without access to proper medical care, education or work.

IAEA team heads to Iran to seek nuclear answers

VIENNA (Reuters) – Senior United Nations nuclear inspectors headed to Tehran on Saturday to press Iranian officials to address suspicions that the Islamic state is seeking atomic weapons.

The U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency hopes Iran, which has indicated readiness to discuss the issue for the first time since 2008, will end years of stonewalling on intelligence pointing to an intention to develop nuclear arms technology.

Iran Says It Could Terminate European Oil Sales Next Week

Escalating retaliatory threats over the West’s nuclear sanctions, Iran warned on Friday that it could terminate oil sales to Europe as early as next week, and it bluntly advised Arab oil producers that any attempt by them to replace Iranian exports would be considered unfriendly.

Iran Oil Curbs Extend to 95% of Tankers in EU Insurance Rules

(Bloomberg) — European Union sanctions on Iranian oil will extend to about 95 percent of tankers because they are insured under rules governed by European law.

Arab Gulf States Urged to Increase Pipelines After Iran’s Oil Threats

As Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz intensify, some energy experts are calling on Arab Gulf states to find alternative ways to export their petroleum. Experts differ, however, on whether proposed pipelines are economically feasible or whether Iran will follow through with its threats.

Nearly 40 percent of seaborne traded oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean and is bordered by Iran and Oman. Iran is threatening to block the route. Any closure of the strategic waterway would likely send oil prices soaring and have a significant impact on the global economy.

Iran oil boss cautious on impact of EU embargo

(TEHRAN) – The National Iranian Oil Company has no firm projection of the impact on world crude prices of a looming EU embargo on Iranian exports, its managing director said in comments published on Saturday.

Ahmad Qalebani told the government newspaper Iran that the size of any hike in prices would depend on the European Union’s success in finding alternative output to make up for Iranian deliveries lost to the market.

“One cannot have an accurate prediction of prices, but it seems that in the future we will witness 120 to 150 dollars a barrel,” Qalebani said.

EU May Tap Oil Reserves After Iran Embargo Imposed in July, Oettinger Says

Some European Union countries may tap their strategic oil reserves after an EU embargo cuts Iranian exports from July, the bloc’s Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said.

“We have enough storage capacities,” Oettinger said in an interview today at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “It is feasible,” he said, referring to the release of stockpiles.

El Segundo, Chevron at odds over oil company’s taxes

El Segundo wants to hike taxes on the Chevron refinery, but the oil company — and many residents — are resisting.

Scientists Beg Obama To Slow Arctic Drilling Rush

In his State of the Union address, President Obama announced he would push forward with new offshore drilling — which includes the pristine waters of the Beaufort Sea, Chukchi Sea, and Cook Inlet off Alaska’s coast. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) wrote a report in June 2011 that described dozens of areas that required further scientific research before taking the risks of disrupting the unique ecosystems on behalf of the oil industry. Now, nearly 600 scientists from around the world have signed an open letter urging President Obama and Interior Secretary Ken Salazar to base Arctic drilling decisions on science, not politics.

Obama loves oil — Not!

Nothing more clearly indicates U.S. President Barack Obama’s economic muddledom and ideological stubbornness than the dog’s breakfast of energy policies revealed in Tuesday’s State of the Union address. The good news is that hydrocarbons are back (as long as you forget Keystone XL). The bad news is that “clean” energy isn’t going away. Instead it’s “all of the above.”

Resist the pipeline and find a new, greener way

Many Kansas and Nebraska residents, including Nebraska’s governor and state representatives, oppose the pipeline because it would traverse the Ogallala Aquifer, the main source of drinking water in the Upper Midwest, and threaten the beautiful and sensitive Sand Hills area. Haunted by the 2010 Gulf oil spill, many worry about a leak that could have disastrous consequences in local areas.

But the danger runs much deeper.

New York’s Fracking Deliberations Inch Along

In yet another sign that New York has slowed efforts to green-light fracking of natural gas, officials at the state Department of Environmental Conservation canceled a meeting of a drilling advisory panel this week for a second time.

There will be oil

So, now that North Dakota is poised to pump oil at the rate of an OPEC country, can we at last retire the notion that the world is in the clutches of “peak oil”?

How Not To Argue That We’re Running Out Of Oil

I made a New Year’s resolution to spend less time on this blog explaining why other people are wrong.

But New Year’s resolutions are meant to be broken — and some things just beg for intervention. That’s unfortunately the case with “Oil’s Tipping Point Has Passed”, an essay in the current issue of Nature by James Murray, an oceanographer at the University of Washington, and David King, a chemist who was chief scientific advisor to Tony Blair and now heads the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at Oxford.

Peak Oil: Preaching to the Laupahoehoe Choir

Last night, I spoke at the Laupahoehoe Community Association meeting and shared the perspective I have gained from watching the world oil supply subject evolve over a short five years.

I related how I have attended four Peak Oil conferences, most recently as Hawai‘i County’s representative. The first thing I learned was that the world has been using twice as much oil as it has been finding for 20 to 30 years – a trend that continues.

Extra scrutiny urged on design of Hanford nuke-waste plant

WASHINGTON – A federal oversight panel is raising new concerns to the Department of Energy about potentially serious flaws in the design of a first-of-its-kind, $12 billion waste treatment plant that is being built for the nation’s largest radioactive cleanup.

What Sweden can teach us about nuclear waste

Last year, the Energy Department set up a commission to figure out what to do with the country’s nuclear waste after a planned repository at Nevada’s Yucca Mountain was nixed. This week, the commission came back and advised a “consent-based approach” to choosing a new site. How would this work?

Chugoku Electric shuts Shimane No. 2 reactor, leaving Japan with only 3 reactors online

TOKYO — Chugoku Electric Power Co on Friday took its 820-megawatt No. 2 reactor at its Shimane nuclear plant offline for planned maintenance.

The shutdown leaves only three reactors operating in Japan out of a total of 54, as public concerns about safety in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear disaster have prevented the restart of reactors shut down last year for maintenance.

California orders hike in number of super clean cars

California, long a national leader in cutting auto pollution, pushed the envelope further Friday as state regulators approved rules to cut greenhouse gas emissions from cars and put significantly more pollution-free vehicles on the road in coming years.

The package of Air Resources Board regulations would require auto manufacturers to offer more zero- or very low-emission cars such as battery electric, hydrogen fuel cell and plug-in hybrid vehicles in California starting with model year 2018.

Electric-Car Use to Reach Tipping Point in 2015, Better Place’s Ofer Says

Better Place LLC, a U.S. startup developing charging stations for electric vehicles, predicts the “tipping point” for electric car use will come as soon as 2015, Chairman Idan Ofer said today.

“The fact is that because we are making it convenient for customers and the moment people realize there is no disadvantage to owning an electric car” they will buy the models, Ofer said in an interview with Bloomberg TV in Davos, Switzerland.

Solar CEOs Predict Boom in China Will Ease Glut in 2012: Energy

China may double its installations of solar panels this year, absorbing excess production that depressed prices and margins in 2011, chief executive officers from two of the industry’s top five manufactures said.

EPA Rejects Palm-Oil Based Biodiesel for Renewable Fuels Program

The Environmental Protection Agency said that biodiesel made from palm oil doesn’t meet the requirements to be added to its renewable fuels program because its greenhouse-gas emissions are too high.

In a regulatory filing today, the EPA said that palm-oil biodiesel, which is primarily produced in countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia, provides reductions of as much as 17 percent in greenhouse-gas emissions compared to traditional diesel fuel, falling short of a 20 percent reduction necessary to qualify under the law.

Spain Suspends Subsidies for New Renewable Energy Power Plants

Spain halted subsidies for renewable energy projects to help curb its budget deficit and rein in power-system borrowings backed by the state that reached 24 billion euros ($31 billion) at the end of 2011.

“What is today an energy problem could become a financial problem,” Industry Minister Jose Manuel Soria said in Madrid. The government passed a decree today stopping subsidies for new wind, solar, co-generation or waste incineration plants.

Midwest utility to shut coal-burning power plants

AKRON, Ohio — FirstEnergy Corp. on Thursday said it will retire six coal-fired power plants, including four in Ohio, because of stricter federal anti-pollution rules.

The six older and dirtier plants will be closed by Sept. 1.

Racing Up (and Down) the Performance Index

Watching the rankings of countries by environmental performance over the last six years has been an occasion for admiration, mingled with bursts of skepticism and even disbelief. It is seldom a surprise that Scandinavian countries occupy at least four spots in the top 15, given their lauded environmental sensibilities (excepting, perhaps, Norwegian whalers and Danish fishermen).

But it was always a surprise to someone who lived in the former Soviet Union that Russia, whose Communist forebears oversaw the dewatering of the Aral Sea, the emergence of pervasive air pollution in cities like Dniepopetrovsk and the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, ranked just a few notches below the United States — or in one case, above — in the 2006, 2008 and 2010 Yale and Columbia’s Environmental Performance Index.

Activists Crack China’s Wall of Denial About Air Pollution

But faced with an Internet-led brush fire of criticism, the edifice of environmental propaganda is collapsing. The government recently reversed course and began to track the most pernicious measure of urban air pollution — particulates 2.5 microns in diameter or less, or PM 2.5. It decreed that about 30 major cities must begin monitoring the particulates this year, followed by about 80 more next year.

The Ministry of Environmental Protection also promised to set health standards for such fine particulates “as soon as possible.” Last week, after years of concealing its data on such pollutants, Beijing began publishing hourly readings from one monitoring station.

Striking right balance for clean energy

Malaysia’s rich endowment of oil and natural gas has powered the country’s development for decades. However, this resource is fast depleting and global prices have risen to unprecedented levels. The country is challenged to meet burgeoning local demand for oil and gas.

Everything You Know About Peak Oil Is Wrong

We’ve been warned before. Four decades ago this year, five scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology published an influential set of predictions regarding the sustainability of human progress. Titled Limits to Growth, their report suggested the world was heading toward economic collapse as it exhausted the natural resources, such as oil and copper, required for economic production. The report forecast that the world would run out of new gold in 2001 and petroleum by 2022, at the latest.

Over the intervening years, the threat of “peak oil” has stayed with us—the date when global petroleum production was to reach its supposed maximum, afterward and evermore to decline as dwindling reserves were tapped out. And the exhaustion of the world’s oil reserves was just the start. A host of other critical natural resources, from phosphorus to uranium, have been declared peaking or already peaked.

Forty years later, however, rereading Limits to Growth invokes a growing sense of irony. Far from being depleted, worldwide reserves of minerals continue to climb. New technologies suggest the dawn of U.S. energy independence. The biggest concern isn’t that the planet is running out of resources—it’s having too many for the planet’s own good.

Oil supply limits and the continuing financial crisis

Since 2005, (1) world oil supply has not increased, and (2) the world has undergone its most severe economic crisis since the Depression. In this paper, logical arguments and direct evidence are presented suggesting that a reduction in oil supply can be expected to reduce the ability of economies to use debt for leverage. The expected impact of reduced oil supply combined with this reduced leverage is similar to the actual impact of the 2008–2009 recession in OECD countries. If world oil supply should continue to remain generally flat, there appears to be a significant possibility that oil consumption in OECD countries will continue to decline, as emerging markets consume a greater share of the total oil that is available. If this should happen, based on these findings we can expect a continuing financial crisis similar to the 2008–2009 recession including significant debt defaults. The financial crisis may eventually worsen, to resemble a collapse situation as described by Joseph Tainter in The Collapse of Complex Societies (1990) or an adverse decline situation similar to adverse scenarios foreseen by Donella Meadows in Limits to Growth (1972).

This and other related articles from the 7th Biennial International Workshop “Advances in Energy Studies” are free, at least for now. Usually ScienceDirect charges a fee, but this publication is apparently a “sample issue.”

Oil Heads for First Weekly Gain in Three; Total Sees $100 Brent Support

Oil headed for its first weekly gain in three, trading near a one-week high in New York amid signs of economic recovery in the U.S., the world’s biggest crude consumer.

Futures gained as much as 0.8 percent, advancing for a third day. The U.S. Commerce Department may say today that economic growth accelerated in the fourth quarter. Durable goods orders rose more than forecast in December, according to data published yesterday, and a report this week showed gasoline demand grew the most in more than two months. Total SA Chief Executive Officer Christophe de Margerie said it would take a “real recession” to send Brent crude below $100 a barrel.

Russia sets new gas pumping record to cover European demand

Moscow (dpa) – Russia has set a new record on volumes of fuel drawn from underground reservoirs in the face of increasing winter demand by domestic and particularly European customers, Russian government energy data made public on Friday showed.

Draws on underground natural gas reserves inside Russia totalled 565 billion cubic metres on Wednesday – topping a previous 553 billion cubic metres single day record set in January 2011, a report published by the Russian government energy monitoring agency TsDU TEK said.

Workers at Pa. refinery get layoff notices

TRAINER, Pa. (AP) — The first of hundreds of employees have been laid off from a Philadelphia-area oil refinery that hasn’t found a buyer after four months on the market.

ConocoPhillips laid off two shifts of workers at its Trainer, Delaware County on Thursday. The remainder of the 385-employee workforce is expected to be laid off Friday.

Chevron profit falls as refineries, output suffer

(Reuters) – Chevron Corp reported lower quarterly earnings on Friday as rising spending on oil and gas projects and losses at its refinery business offset gains from higher crude oil prices.

Oil and gas output at the No. 2 U.S. oil company also declined to 2.64 million barrels per day (BPD) from 2.79 million BPD a year-ago.

Colombia to Get $10 Billion in Mining, Energy Investments, Cardenas Says

Colombia, South America’s third- largest oil producer, expects about $10 billion in international investment in crude, mining and energy projects this year, Mines Minister Mauricio Cardenas said.

Pertamina green lights $2bn gas spend

PT Pertamina is to splash out almost $2 billion over the next three years as it wins approval for ambitious plans to revamp gas infrastructure in Indonesia.

Myanmar has no plans to boost gas exports beyond 2013

(Reuters) – Myanmar will keep natural gas from new projects beyond 2013 for domestic consumption, a shift of policy aimed at powering its development, the country’s energy minister said on Friday.

Oil industry sees China winning, West losing from Iran sanctions

(Reuters) – As the European Union prepares to ban Iranian oil and the United States turns the screw on payments, oil executives and policymakers say China and Russia stand to gain the most and Western oil firms and consumers may emerge the biggest losers.

Iran could ban EU oil exports next week -lawmakers

TEHRAN (Reuters) – A law to be debated in Iran’s parliament on Sunday may halt oil exports to the European Union as early as next week, foiling an EU plan to phase in an oil embargo gradually to help its struggling economies adapt, lawmakers said on Friday.

“On Sunday, parliament will have to approve a ‘double emergency’ bill calling for a halt in the export of Iranian oil to Europe starting next week,” Hossein Ibrahimi, vice-chairman of parliament’s national security and foreign policy committee, was quoted as saying by the semi-official Fars news agency.

Oil Markets Seen Withstanding Iran Attack Shock in Global Investor Survey

More than 70 percent of investors said an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would create only a short-term disruption in oil markets, according to a quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll.

Only about a third of the 1,209 global investors, traders and analysts surveyed Jan. 23-24 said an attack could trigger an oil shock leading to a global recession.

Israel’s Bombing Threat Helped Spur Iran Sanctions, How Will it Affect Iran Diplomacy?

Reiterating the threat of military action is a well-established Israeli tactic: Netanyahu argues publicly that Iran will only concede if it faces a real and imminent danger of military action. “This threat is crucial for scaring the Iranians and for goading on the Americans and the Europeans [into putting more pressure on Tehran],” wrote Haaretz columnist Ari Shavit last summer, castigating Israel’s recently retired Mossad chief Meir Dagan for pooh-poohing the idea of an Israeli strike on Iran. “It is also crucial for spurring on the Chinese and the Russians. Israel must not behave like an insane country. Rather, it must create the fear that if it is pushed into a corner it will behave insanely.”

Iran’s threat to fast-growing Qatar

Qatar is one of the fastest growing economies in the world, and the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) rocketed up by 28% in 2011. But growing tensions in Iran and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could endanger one the of nation’s main money makers – gas exports.

Oman may help Sri Lanka if Iran oil sanctions bite

(Reuters) – Oman may sell oil to Sri Lanka in the event of a crisis, which the island nation is racing to avert with U.S. sanctions on Iranian crude threatening its primary refining supply, Sri Lankan officials told Reuters on Friday.

Tensions flare over Falkland Islands

Buenos Aires (CNN) — It’s been nearly 30 years since British and Argentinian troops fought over the Falkland Islands, but politicians from both countries are ratcheting up their rhetoric over the British-controlled territory.

…”They are preying on our natural resources, our oil, our fish,” Argentinian President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner said Wednesday.

Activists report ‘terrifying massacre’ in Syria

BEIRUT (AP) – A “terrifying massacre” in the restive Syrian city of Homs has killed more than 30 people, including small children, in a barrage of mortar fire and attacks by armed forces loyal to President Bashar Assad, activists said Friday.

Officials: Car bomb targets funeral in Baghdad, killing dozens

Baghdad, Iraq (CNN) — A suicide car bomber targeted a Shiite funeral procession in the Iraqi capital Friday, killing 31 people and wounding 60 others, two police officials said.

Saudi warns of possible Mideast nuclear arms race

DAVOS, Switzerland (AP) — An influential member of the Saudi royal family is warning if the Middle East does not become a nuclear weapon-free zone, a nuclear arms race is inevitable and could possibly include Iraq, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and even Turkey.

Spike in deaths blamed on 2003 NYC power outage

The biggest electricity blackout to occur in the United States resulted in 90 additional deaths in New York City, caused both by accidents and disease-related problems, according to a new analysis of data from the summer of 2003.

“Our results from this study indicate that power outages can immediately and severely harm human health,” said Brooke Anderson, the lead author of the study and a researcher at Johns Hopkins University.

BP Can’t Collect Part of Gulf Spill Costs From Transocean

BP Plc (BP) can’t collect from Transocean Ltd. (RIGN) part of the $40 billion in cleanup costs and economic losses caused by the 2010 oil well blowout and Gulf of Mexico spill, a judge ruled. Transocean shares rose on the news.

BP must indemnify Transocean for pollution-related economic damage claims under its drilling contract, U.S. District Judge Carl Barbier in New Orleans ruled yesterday. London-based BP (BP/) sued Transocean in April to recover a share of its damages and costs from the spill.

No Energy Industry Backing For The Word ‘Fracking’

NEW YORK (AP) – A different kind of F-word is stirring a linguistic and political debate as controversial as what it defines.

The word is “fracking” — as in hydraulic fracturing, a technique long used by the oil and gas industry to free oil and gas from rock.

It’s not in the dictionary, the industry hates it, and President Barack Obama didn’t use it in his State of the Union speech — even as he praised federal subsidies for it.

EU law enough for now to regulate shale gas – study

BRUSSELS (Reuters) – EU law is enough for now to regulate shale gas exploration, although changes might be needed to protect the environment once Europe enters the development phase, a study commissioned by the EU found.

Shale gas exploitation in the United States has transformed the global supply-demand balance.

In Europe, however, development is less advanced and EU member states Bulgaria and France have banned shale gas activity because of environmental concerns.

Japan Post-Fukushima Reactor Checks ‘Insufficient,’ Advisers Say

Japan’s safety review of nuclear reactors after the Fukushima disaster is based on faulty criteria and many people involved have conflicts of interest, two government advisers on the checks said.

“The whole process being undertaken is exactly the same as that used previous to the Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident, even though the accident showed all these guidelines and categories to be insufficient,” Hiromitsu Ino, Professor Emeritus at the University of Tokyo, said at a briefing in Tokyo today.

Japan’s ‘Nuclear Alley’ conflicted over reactors

OHI, Japan (AP) — International inspectors are visiting a rugged Japanese bay region so thick with reactors it is dubbed “Nuclear Alley,” where residents remain deeply conflicted as Japan moves to restart plants idled after the Fukushima disaster.

Fukushima’s animals abandoned and left to die

Inside Fukushima Exclusion Zone, Japan (CNN) — When you stand in the center of Japan’s exclusion zone, there is absolute silence. The exclusion zone is the 20-kilometer (12-mile) radius around the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant, an area of high radiation contamination.

On March 12, the day after the quake and tsunami hit, 78,000 people were evacuated out of this area, believing they would return within a few days. As such, thousands of people left with their dogs tied up in the backyard, cats in their houses and livestock penned in barns.

Revamped Search Urged for a Nuclear Waste Site

WASHINGTON — A commission appointed to find alternatives to a failed plan to store nuclear waste in the Nevada desert declared on Thursday that the United States would have to develop a “consent-based approach” for choosing a site because leaving the decision to Congress had failed.

By securing local consent, the panel said, the government might avoid the kind of conflicts that led to the cancellation of plans to create a repository at Yucca Mountain, a site 100 miles from Las Vegas, in 2010. It noted that local willingness had been crucial to decision-making on sites for nuclear waste depots in Finland, France, Spain and Sweden.

Is Spent Nuclear Fuel Really Waste?

Among advocates of nuclear power, considerable disagreement exists about whether the spent fuel can be considered waste, given that it contains unused uranium as well as plutonium, which is created in nuclear reactors and can be used as fuel.

President Obama’s energy plan panned by both sides

As his re-election bid nears, President Obama is pitching a made-in-America energy agenda that calls for more offshore oil drilling, natural gas development and clean-energy investments.

But he’s not winning kudos from either the oil industry or environmental groups.

API scoffs at Obama’s lease sale

WASHINGTON (UPI) — The American Petroleum Institute welcomed plans for a lease sale in the Gulf of Mexico but also said U.S. energy ambitions are lackluster.

Tech bet sours for Elkhart, Ind., as electric carmaker Think, battery firm Ener1 fall into bankruptcy

Indiana’s foray into electric vehicles is a cautionary tale for states in hot pursuit of high-tech manufacturing jobs. Think’s story illustrates how politicians so badly wanted to stimulate job growth that they showered it and the battery supplier with tax breaks and incentives while at the same time failing to determine whether there was a market for the car: a plastic two-seater with a top speed of about 65 miles an hour and a price tag approaching $42,000.

“Where’s the value?” Gregg Fore, an Elkhart recreational vehicle industry executive, said of Think. “I could buy a golf cart for five grand if that’s what I wanted to drive.”

Renewables From Vestas to Suntech Plan Profit Without Subsidy

Renewable energy companies are approaching the point where they can generate electricity at a price competitive with fossil-fuels without subsidies, the biggest wind and solar manufacturers said.

Waning Support for Wind and Solar

Assisted by technological innovation and years of subsidies, the cost of wind and solar power has fallen sharply — so much so that the two industries say that they can sometimes deliver cleaner electricity at prices competitive with power made from fossil fuels.

At the same time, wind and solar companies are telling Congress that they cannot be truly competitive and keep creating jobs without a few more years of government support.

German Solar Rush Is Predicted by Breil as Lawmakers Put Off Subsidy Cuts

Germany may see a rush of solar panel installations in the coming weeks after lawmakers from Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition failed to agree on an overhaul of the country’s clean-energy subsidy system.

Apple, Electronics and Environmental Ills

Environmental groups say that while multinational corporations like Apple are trying to improve conditions, thousands — or perhaps tens of thousands — of smaller companies are cutting corners and dumping hazardous chemicals in rural areas and even near densely populated areas.

Contest Time! The Crisis of Civilization Remix Challenge

If you’ve seen it, you’ll probably have guessed that here at The Crisis of Civilization we love Remix films – and we want you to have a go too. We would like to invite you to create your own Crisis of Civilization-style sequences, using unused interview audio of Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed with images put over the top and music laid underneath.

Southern plants find fertile ground farther north

Southern magnolias, lovers of sultry weather, braving the chillier Northeast?

Camellias, a New Orleans trademark, staking out in North Carolina and higher latitudes?

It’s true, gardening experts say, and expect similar oddities to represent the new norm.

Regional Cap-and-Trade Effort Seeks Greater Impact by Cutting Carbon Allowances

Adjusting to shifts in the economy, states in the cap-and-trade system known as the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative have slashed the number of allowances that electric power companies can buy to offset their emissions.

Al Gore: Living on Thin Ice

Last September, millions of you joined us for 24 Hours of Reality, when we connected the dots between the extreme weather events happening all over the world and the reality of the climate crisis. Together, we saw that we don’t need to travel far to see the impacts of climate change. Most of us are already feeling those impacts close to home.

Yet the climate crisis is also causing momentous changes in remote regions far from major population centers, in places like Antarctica, Greenland and the North Polar Ice Cap. Some of the most dangerous changes in our climate system are the ones that often receive the least attention.

“Monster” rules Nepal village on climate frontline

There are more than 3,200 glaciers in Nepal, and 14 of them are at risk of bursting the dams which control the melting water that flows from them, officials say.

“The melting of glaciers that forms lakes can only be attributed to climate change,” said Arun Bhakta Shrestha, climate change specialist at the Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), which studies climate change in the Hindu Kush Himalayas.

Singapore raises sea defences against tide of climate change

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – A 15-km (10 mile) stretch of crisp white beach is one of the key battlegrounds in Singapore’s campaign to defend its hard-won territory against rising sea levels linked to climate change.

Stone breakwaters are being enlarged on the low-lying island state’s man-made east coast and their heights raised. Barges carrying imported sand top up the beach, which is regularly breached by high tides.

Stuart Staniford: Historical Note on Drought in Climate Models

This morning, I stumbled on a 1999 paper “DETECTABILITY OF SUMMER DRYNESS CAUSED BY GREENHOUSE WARMING” by Wetherald and Manabe. The paper discusses a single climate model (obviously a by-now very outdated one) which generates very serious drought across much of the world in the second half of the twenty-first century. The map above gives the general idea.