China steps up, slowly but surely
Among members of the U.S. Congress and negotiators preparing for a December climate summit in Copenhagen, China is often considered an obstacle because it has not committed to imposing a ceiling on its emissions of the gases that most scientists blame for climate change. China produces the most carbon emissions in the world, and the output is likely to continue growing for two decades. When President Hu Jintao pledged at the United Nations last month to lower the country’s carbon intensity “by a notable margin,” that was regarded as a step forward.
Yet, in visible and less visible ways, China has begun to address its emissions problem. The steps are driven in part by the parochial concern that climate change could worsen the flooding that plagues the country’s low-lying coastal regions, including Shanghai, and cause water shortages in western areas as glaciers in the Himalayas melt away.
But China has also begun to see energy efficiency and renewable energy as ingredients for the type of modern economy it wants to build, in part because it would make the nation’s energy sources more secure.
Crude rally stalls but gas nears summer high
Energy demand is extremely weak and the country’s storage tanks are brimming with crude, said Peter Beutel, an analyst at Cameron Hanover.
There are also whispers that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which supplies more than 35 percent of the world’s crude, will decide to open up the spigots when it meets in December.
“At some point, the bubble has to burst,” Beutel said.
Traders Sell September Put Options as Oil Ends Week Above $80
(Bloomberg) — New York oil traders sold $45 put options, bets that crude would fall below that price, as futures settled above $80 a barrel for the third time this week.
September 2010 $45 put options were the most active options on the New York Mercantile Exchange, based on electronic trading today. They were followed by December $90 and $100 calls, bets that the price will rise above those levels. The call options also declined.
Crude May Decline on Ample Stockpiles, Survey Shows
(Bloomberg) — Crude oil futures may fall next week on speculation that U.S. inventories are sufficient to meet weakening demand.
Eighteen of 36 analysts, or 50 percent, said oil will drop through Oct. 30. Twelve respondents, or 33 percent, forecast that the market will rise and six said prices will be little changed. Last week, analysts were split over whether prices would rise or fall.
Oil may hit $100/barrel on weak dollar: Deutsche
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Oil prices may surge to $100 a barrel sometime in the next two quarters as the U.S. dollar weakens against the euro, Deutsche Bank energy economist Adam Sieminski said Friday.
“We think the dollar could weaken further to $1.60 against the euro and it implies pushing oil prices to that threatening triple-digit level,” Sieminski told Reuters.
ESAI sees potential oil bull trap
ESAI estimates the global contraction in oil demand will average around 1.75 million b/d in 2009 and then oil demand will grow by at least 1.3 million b/d in 2010. OPEC production has begun creeping up, although quota discipline remains impressive in the face of almost $80 crude oil prices.
The combination of creeping OPEC output and still weak demand will result in a counter seasonal surplus in the fourth quarter and very high distillate stocks, indicating a fundamentally soft market this winter. But, this fundamental picture is overwhelmed by other signals coming from the investment community.
Daniel Yergin on oil: Expect $60 to $100 a barrel
If anyone should know about the outlook for oil, it would be Daniel Yergin. He’s the Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The Prize, a marvelously documented history of the oil industry that frames the origins of OPEC.
Yergin was interviewed on a Bloomberg radio program this week. Here are excerpts:
–Oil demand: “We think the industrial world actually peaked out in terms of its oil demand in 2005.”
Nouriel Roubini, One on One: More Doom and Gloom
Index Universe: You’ve said that you’re worried we’re already sowing the seeds of the next crisis. Where do you see that most directly?
Dr. Nouriel Roubini: Well in commodities, I look at oil prices. They fell from $145 last summer, came down to $30 earlier this year and now they’re back close to $80. But if I look at the fundamentals of demand and supply, demand is down to 2005 levels, supply and inventories are at all-time highs. In my view, the movement in oil prices is not fully justified by the fundamentals.
Our First Peak Oil Recession: Why Oil Prices May Never Rise Above $150
One of the most bedeviling problems for oil producers (and oil investors) is knowing when it’s too cheap to keep producing, and when it’s too expensive to sell.
Last year gave us new boundaries: $147 a barrel was too expensive, and $33 was too cheap. But those aren’t terribly useful numbers in the real world.
We now know that $147 was extra-inflated by too much money sloshing into the sector, and $33 was extra-deflated by the fear and confusion that dominated all markets in December of last year. It’s likely that tighter regulation of the oil futures market will tamp down the former, and the latter will not be seen again. . . so long as the world banking system continues to beg, borrow, and steal its way to stability and “full faith and credit.”
South Korea may be doing a China. Korea National Oil Company’s C$1.8 billion ($1.7 billion) purchase of Canadian Harvest Energy Trust secures future oil supplies, like recent Chinese deals in Canada and elsewhere.
With oil shortages possible in the medium term, that makes sense. But Korea can’t play rough, so KNOC must stick to countries it trusts. That makes Korea’s quest for energy security a tougher one than China’s.
In a free market, there would be no need to secure oil supplies in this way — rather, they could be acquired freely on the spot market or through long-term contracts. That’s how Korea currently obtains most of its 2.14 million barrels a day in imports.
INGAA study takes midstream look at long-term gas supply
WASHINGTON, DC — Projected growth in North American natural gas supplies and markets will require billions of dollars of additional investments in pipelines, storage, and other midstream infrastructure through 2030, a recent INGAA Foundation Inc. study concluded.
The study, which the Interstate Natural Gas Association of America’s research division released on Oct. 20, projected that investments of $133-210 billion — or $6-10 billion/year — would be needed in the next 20 years under various market scenarios.
The outlays would be needed primarily to join increased gas production from unconventional shale basins and tight sands to the existing pipeline network, it said. Anticipated electric power generation and industrial demand growth as well as the potential to connect massive Arctic gas resources and LNG imports to the grid also will be key drivers, it indicated.
Puerto Rico Has Fuel Supplies for 24 Days After Fire
(Bloomberg) — Puerto Rico has enough fuel to supply the island for almost a month after explosions and fire at a refinery and tank farm near San Juan in Bayamon.
The power authority has fuel to supply the island for about 24 days after 14 of the 40 tanks at Caribbean Petroleum Corp.’s farm were on fire today, Governor Luis Fortuno said in comments in a PR Newswire statement. The Federal Bureau of Investigation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Coast Guard and others are coordinating efforts, Fortuno said.
“We will coordinate with wholesalers to ensure adequate fuel is supplied to all citizens,” he said. “There is no problem in terms of supply.”
Bolivia Gas Industry Losing Clients, Former President Says
(Bloomberg) — Bolivia, which holds South America’s second-largest natural-gas reserves, has seen reduced gas output and investments since the government took greater control of its energy assets, former President Jorge Quiroga said.
Since President Evo Morales’s government raised taxes and forced companies to renegotiate energy contracts three years ago, it has stifled investments, said Quiroga, who held office from 2001 to 2002 and leads the Andean country’s largest opposition party.
Azerbaijan and Turkey clash over energy
MONTREAL – In all the debate and speculation over the various pipelines planned for the Caspian-South Caucasus corridor and adjacent regions (Nabucco, South Stream, White Stream, and Trans-Caspian Gas Pipelines in addition to various oil pipeline projects), the troubled state of energy relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey has been lost from view, mainly due to their stellar cooperation in the past over the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and South Caucasus Pipeline for gas in particular.
However, Azerbaijan’s frustration with Turkey’s inability or unwillingness to address present and future bilateral contract terms has now broken out into the open at the highest level. Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliev was this week widely quoted in the press as saying publicly, “What state [meaning Azerbaijan] would agree to sell its natural resources for 30% of world market prices, especially under current conditions? This is illogical.”
Listen Up! Northwest program 66: Post-carbon transportation
This week, Listen Up! Northwest speaks with energy experts Richard Gilbert and Anthony Perl, authors of the book “Transport Revolutions: Moving People and Freight without Oil.” The authors share their research and views on ‘peak oil’ and transportation.
The secret lives of our profs: Assistant Professor of Government Jason Brozek
So, I think the issue is international fresh water. It’s an underappreciated problem. Everybody realizes that we’ve passed peak oil, and that we’re just about past the point where we can save the atmosphere from burning us all alive. But, there’s this incredible problem of international water and we’re overusing it. We’re running out so quickly and there’s no political interest internationally in solving this problem. The research project, my research that I’m working on right now is about international bodies of water. So rivers, lakes, aquifers that cross international borders and how those conflicts are managed. I think it’s an incredibly important problem that’s not getting enough attention internationally or academically.
Does Toronto have to be a mean city?
Consider for a moment the great challenges and potential opportunities Toronto is bound to face in coming decades. Here are six of them — more could be added to the list. How Torontonians negotiate them will have much to do with shaping the city’s success or failure in the time of our descendants.
· The decline of the suburbs. The decades following the Second World War were the golden age of the motorcar, the suburb, and the flight from urban density. We have now entered the era of Peak Oil, the struggle to contain climate change and the decline of the motorcar. Cities of the future will be more densely populated, more like those of the 19th century than those of the second half of the 20th century, in that respect. Managing the shift to greater density — the shift is not a matter of choice, it will come — while paying heed to social justice, urban planning and the minimizing of dislocation, will figure largely in determining the success or failure of Toronto.
Real action on climate change is needed now in B.C. and at Copenhagen
We can’t go back easily to a hunter-gatherer population of just millions living in a pristine world. Even if we wanted to. Even if that was the only solution to climate change and biodiversity loss and peak oil and all of the other “bottleneck” problems caused by exponentially increasing populations armed with potent technologies.
We must instead head for a future where humanity isn’t a cancer threatening all life on Earth. If such a future is possible.
Australia faces famine, expert warns
A food production expert says Australia may face a massive famine if governments fail to address an impending global food shortage.
A conference of food productivity experts in Sydney this week heard the greatest threat to the world is not climate change, but food production on land and in the water.
Clunkers leads to backlog at recycling yards
Under the federal trade-in program, the cars are required to be crushed or shredded within six months of the date the vehicle is transferred from the dealership. Recyclers say the deadline — even a few months away — will be difficult to meet as they try to remove spare parts such as transmissions, front and rear axles, starters and alternators.
“True recycling is using something to its fullest potential and then recycling it over again by making it into steel and sending it out to become another engine or transmission or car,” said Jeff Cantor, an auto recycler in Candia, N.H. “We’re breaking that circle here by crushing good quality parts. We can’t process them quick enough in six months.”
For many, saving green a big part of picture
When the doors open at the Bright Green Future conference this morning in La Jolla, participants will get a glimpse of how economic and ecological goals are merging, changing the face of environmentalism.
There won’t be lots of speeches about protecting polar ice caps or redwood trees. The free symposium is mainly about how green choices such as harve sting rainwater can lower household bills and create better places to live. Several sessions, including one called “Show Me the Money,” are about green jobs.
Obama: Energy Bill Opponents Using Cynical Ploy
CAMBRIDGE, Mass. (AP) ― President Barack Obama said Friday that opponents of his energy bill are disputing the evidence of global warming in a cynical ploy to undermine efforts to curb pollution and steer the nation to greener energy sources.
Obama said some opponents “make cynical claims that contradict the overwhelming scientific evidence when it comes to climate change — claims whose only purpose is to defeat or delay the change that we know is necessary.”
Senate Climate Measure Would Give Away Most Pollution Permits
(Bloomberg) — Lawmakers would give away for free the bulk of all pollution permits under a plan to curb global warming introduced yesterday by Senator Barbara Boxer.
The 923-page measure is similar to legislation the House passed in June. The Senate bill gives away free carbon dioxide emission permits to some industries, including 35.5 percent for utilities, 15 percent for manufacturers and 2.25 percent for oil refineries.
EPA estimates Senate climate bill costs modest
WASHINGTON (AP) — An analysis by the Environmental Protection Agency says a proposed Senate bill to combat global warming would add a little over $100 a year to household energy costs.
The analysis released late Friday by California Sen. Barbara Boxer’s office generally mirrors the cost projected by the EPA when it examined similar legislation passed last summer by the House.
Bill would offer incentives to anyone who buys energy storage systems
U.S. Rep. Mike Thompson, D-Yolo County, introduced legislation that provides a 30 percent tax credit for the purchase of thermal energy storage systems for homes and businesses. Energy storage technology allows consumers to purchase electricity during off-peak hours and save it to use during peak hours.
Renewables targets will hinder decarbonisation, warn business leaders
Delegates at CBI conference argue renewable energy targets are unlikely to be met, forcing the UK to increase reliance on gas.
Wind industry targets training for 60,000 green collar workers
The British Wind Energy Association (BWEA) yesterday inked a deal with representatives from the government’s skills programme, designed to provide training for up to 60,000 new wind energy technicians and engineers.
Solar recovery to start, but 2010 outlook dim
FRANKFURT (Reuters) – European solar equipment makers are slowly emerging from the crisis that has hit the sector, quarterly results will show, but the outlook beyond 2009 will be uncertain due to tight credit and oversupply.
Europe’s solar companies are expected to show signs of recovery when third-quarter earnings kick off next week, with analysts expecting capacity adjustments and the shift of production abroad to benefit companies.
SunPower Drops Most in 10 Months on Lower Guidance
(Bloomberg) — SunPower Corp., the second-biggest U.S. supplier of solar modules, fell the most in 10 months after reducing the top end of sales and profit guidance for the year.
SunPower sank $4.95, or 15 percent, to $28.35 in Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading. The shares, which fell the most since Dec. 1, have declined 23 percent this year.
‘Stealth’ wind turbine deployed
Defence firm Qinetiq and turbine manufacturing firm Vestas are developing “stealth turbines”, with radar-absorbing materials and coatings.
The five-year effort may help many wind farm projects that are on hold because of so-called “radar clutter” concerns.
Hydropower industry braces for glacier-free future
RHONE GLACIER, Switzerland (Reuters) – Standing on the glacier at the source of the Rhone river, glaciologist Andreas Bauder poses next to a 3-meter high pole sticking out of the ice, and gestures above his head.
“This is about the melt of one month,” he says, as fellow scientists drill into the ice. “I’m about two meters tall.”
From the Himalayas to the Andes, faster-melting glaciers spell short-term opportunities — and long-term risks — for hydroelectric power and the engineering and construction industries it drives.
The most widely used form of renewable energy globally, hydro meets more than half Switzerland’s energy needs. As summers dry and glaciers that help drive turbines with meltwater recede, that share may eventually fall.
Australians kick off world climate change protest
SYDNEY (AFP) – Climate activists gathered on the steps of Sydney’s iconic Opera House Saturday and along the city’s beaches to kick off an international day of protest about global warming.
Along the famous sands of Bondi Beach and across the span of the Harbour Bridge protesters gathered with placards bearing the logo 350 to call for a cut in carbon emissions to 350 parts per million (ppm), organisers said.
